2013: Global Economic Expectations

Expected GDP growth of 3.3% next year will be powered by China and emerging economies

Andy Brunner 11 December, 2012 | 1:56PM

Recent economic data has proven highly variable with signs of an upcoming rebound in industrial production mixed with conflicting signals from official and survey data. In aggregate, global growth in Q4 appears likely to ease from even the prior quarter’s sub-par pace, led by a slowdown in the US and a steeper contraction in the euro area. Hopes are squarely pinned on China and the rest of Asia, excluding Japan, recovering from earlier weakness.

Hopes are squarely pinned on China and the rest of Asia

For this year as a whole, the global economy is likely to report only 3.0% growth compared to 3.8% in 2011. The slowdown in Chinese activity to 7.5% from 9.3% last year (but with a “hard landing” avoided) combined with the euro area sliding into recession (-0.5% after 1.5% last year) were the key contributing factors.

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About Author

Andy Brunner

Andy Brunner  is an investment strategist with Morningstar OBSR.

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