Microsoft Earnings Beat Forecasts on Strong AI and Cloud Demand

We are raising our fair value estimate for the stock after impressive results

Dan Romanoff 26 April, 2024 | 9:37AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Microsoft logo

Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings on April 25. Here's what our analyst thought of the report.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Microsoft

• Fair Value Estimate: $435
• Morningstar Rating: 3 stars
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium

We've raised our fair value estimate for the stock to $435 per share, from $420 previously, after another set of strong quarterly results and stronger near-term growth and profitability.

What We Thought of Microsoft's Results

Wide-moat Microsoft continues to deliver with strong third-quarter results, topping both our top- and bottom-line estimates. Results are impressive from most angles, but we highlight strength in AI, Azure, and gaming; a surge in bookings from large Azure deals; and robust margin performance despite downward pressure from the Activision acquisition are our key takeaways.

Artificial intelligence remains the focal point and contributed 700 basis points to Azure growth. Management also provided a high-level preview for fiscal 2025 that included double-digit revenue growth and operating margin contraction of about 1 percentage point, which is consistent with our model. With shares trading up 4% after hours, they remain in 3-star territory.

We see results as reinforcing our long-term thesis centering on the proliferation of hybrid cloud environments and Azure as the firm continues to use its on-premises dominance to allow clients to move to the cloud at their own pace. We centre our growth assumptions around Azure, Microsoft 365 E5 migration, and traction with the Power Platform for long-term value creation. AI is also quickly supplementing growth as well, which we see as another secular driver.

For the March quarter, revenue increased 17% year over year to $61.86 billion, compared with the midpoint of guidance of $60.50 billion. We calculate Activision added about $2.05 billion to revenue. Relative to the year-ago period, productivity and business processes rose 12%, intelligent cloud increased 21%, and more personal computing expanded 17%. Compared with guidance, both MPC and IC came in above the high end, while PBP was just below the high end. Good sales execution and sales mix toward software, away from hardware, buttressed margins.

Magnificent Seven Earnings:

Meta Spending Plans Trouble Investors

TAGS

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Dan Romanoff  is an equity research analyst on the technology, media, and telecommunications team for Morningstar in Chicago.

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures