Flash PMIs: Eurozone Economy Edging Closer to Expansion

Main contributor in the eurozone came from the service sector, which rose for the second month in March after six months of decline

Sara Silano 21 March, 2024 | 11:09AM
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Today, March 21, “flash” estimates for purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIin the UK and Eurozone have been released. These data sets are closely watched for signs of recovery in key economic sectors like manufacturing and services. They are initial estimates for the current month that are subject to revision.

The eurozone economy moved closer to expanding in March, according to provisional PMI survey data provided by S&P Global today.  

The seasonally adjusted HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index rose from 49.2 in February to 49.9 in March, slightly higher than FacSet consensus, and very close to the line that marks expansion from contraction.

“Although signalling a tenth consecutive month of falling output, March’s decline was only marginal and the smallest since last June, indicating a near-stabilisation of activity. New orders fell at the slowest rate for ten months and backlogs of work were depleted at the weakest rate for nine months,” said S&P in a note.

The main contributor in the eurozone came from the service sector, which rose for the second month in March after six months of decline. HCOB Flash Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index rose at 51.1, from 50.2 in February. In contrast, manufacturing output fell across the euro area for a 12th successive month in March and registered another month of steep contraction. The Manufacturing PMI Output Index stood at 46.8, from 46.6 in February.

Business conditions continued to vary markedly by country. “Ongoing falls in output in France and Germany offset a gathering upturn in the rest of the eurozone to point to an uneven economic picture,” said S&P Global.

When Will the ECB Cut Rates?

Business confidence about the year ahead improved to a 13-month high, thanks to the expectation of lower interest rates and a moderating cost of living squeeze. However, global geopolitical risks and persistent inflation keep concerns about the future of the economy alive.

According to Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, “it's time to throw in the towel” in terms of a recovery of the manufacturing sector in the first quarter. However, “there is a glimmer of hope,” because companies remain optimistic about future production.

On March 20, the European Central Bank president, Christine Lagarde, said that the ECB will be unable to commit to a path of interest rate cuts. However, Michael Field, European equity market strategist at Morningstar, said that the eurozone weakness might be its strength, because inflation has fallen faster than in US and the economy is unlikely to grow at all in 2024. So, the ECB is under growing pressure to take action on interest rates, according to Field.

UK Manufacturing - Growing Again?

The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global flash UK PMI composite output index edged down marginally to 52.9 points in March from 53.0 in February. The reading indicates a slight slowdown in growth, but it remains above the 50-point no-change mark separating growth from contraction.

The flash UK services PMI business activity index edged down to 53.4 points in March from 53.8 in February.

The flash UK manufacturing output index improved to a 13-month high of 50.2 points in March from 48.3 in February, meaning output swung back to growth. The flash UK manufacturing PMI rose to near-neutral 49.9 points in March from 47.5 in February.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "A further robust expansion of business activity ended the economy's best quarter since the second quarter of last year. The survey data are indicative of first quarter GDP rising 0.25% to thereby signal a reassuringly solid rebound from the technical recession seen in the second half of 2023."

While noting an "encouraging" broad-based expansion with a sustained increase in service sector activity, he added. "However, while recession worries have abated, inflation remains a concern. Stubbornly sticky service sector inflation has persisted into March, exacerbated by renewed inflation in the manufacturing sector."

When Will the Bank of England Cut Rates?

At midday today the Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates, despite a fall in inflation in February. Currently markets are pricing in the first interest rate cut from the BoE in June, as well as the ECB and the Federal Reserve, which held rates on March 20.

By Sara Silano and UK content from Alliance News

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Sara Silano

Sara Silano  is Editorial Manager for Morningstar Italy

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