Who Will Win the General Election?

For some time now the Conservatives have been expecting to pull ahead of Labour in the polls as the economic recovery has taken hold, but this has failed to occur

Jeremy Beckwith 23 April, 2015 | 3:27PM
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Officially the UK General Election campaign is about halfway done, unofficially of course it is in the final stages of a marathon that kicked off with the 2014 March budget and its new pension freedoms. There are some signs that the electorate have hit the wall with regard to tolerance for political points-scoring.

A large number of investors have not yet definitively decided how to vote

For the last twelve months the poll ratings for both Conservatives and Labour have remained roughly equal at 30-35% apiece. UKIP consistently poll in third place but their support appears to have peaked at the European elections last May and since then have drifted back from the high teens to the low teens, the Lib Dems and the Greens split a further 15%. The most important change barely registers in the national opinion polls but the SNP has seen a strong surge in support throughout Scotland following the defeat of the referendum vote on independence.

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Jeremy Beckwith  is Director of Manager Research for Morningstar UK