FOREX MARKET: Dollar mixed as key US inflation reading draws nearer

(Alliance News) - The dollar was mixed on Tuesday as markets brace for the latest US inflation ...

Alliance News 9 August, 2022 | 1:50PM
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(Alliance News) - The dollar was mixed on Tuesday as markets brace for the latest US inflation reading.

"Tomorrow the latest US inflation figures will be released, in what is likely to be this week's big moment for the American currency. Current investor expectations factor in another 75 bp Fed rate hike in September. However, a significant slowdown in the rise of consumer prices could shift the sentiment of the markets and trigger some dollar weakness," said ActivTrade's Ricardo Evangelista.

Consensus, according to FXStreet, expects the US inflation rate for July to ease to 8.7% year-on-year from 9.1% in June. The core rate, however, should tick up to 6.1% from 5.9%.

The inflation data follows Friday's blowout nonfarm payrolls figure. Societe Generale sees trouble down the road for the pound-dollar pairing with the US economy appearing robust despite aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

"The unexpectedly positive US employment report last Friday is in sharp contrast with the grim UK economic outlook. Recession fears are now receding in the US, and the debate has started on whether or not there will be a second consecutive 75bp Fed hike. With room for further sterling shorts, GBP/USD is at risk of again falling below 1.20 in the very near term," said SocGen.

The pound was unchanged at USD1.2107 on Tuesday afternoon. Against the euro, the pound was trading at EUR1.1826, down against EUR1.1878.

The euro was changing hands at USD1.0237 on Tuesday afternoon, higher against USD1.0194 at the same time on Monday.

The EU's emergency gas plan preparing the bloc for a possible halt in Russian gas supplies came into force on Tuesday.

Under the plan, EU countries are to reduce their gas consumption voluntarily by 15% between August 1 and March 31, compared to the average consumption in the same period during the past five years.

The move was sparked by Moscow's recent drastic reductions in gas deliveries to the EU in recent months amid Russia's war on Ukraine. There are fears that supplies could be cut off entirely.

Versus the Australian dollar, the US currency was priced at AUD1.4340, rebounding from AUD1.4324. Against fellow commodity currency, the Canadian loonie, the greenback traded at CAD1.2865, largely unchanged against CAD1.2866.

The two were treading water after the EU said it expects Tehran and Washington to "very quickly" respond to a "final" text aimed at salvaging a 2015 deal meant to curb Iran's nuclear programme.

"There is no more space for negotiations," a foreign policy spokesman for the bloc, Peter Stano, told journalists in Brussels.

"We have a final text. So it's the moment for a decision: yes or no. And we expect all participants to take this decision very quickly."

Danske Bank commented: "Now it is a matter of whether US and EU are ready to accept the deal that could see a return of Iran's oil exports to the global market. A decision could come within weeks."

Against the Swiss franc, the greenback was priced at CHF0.9520, lower against CHF0.9578. Versus the Japanese yen, the buck was quoted at JPY135.00, rising from JPY134.82.

By Lucy Heming; lucyheming@alliancenews.com

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