Palladium Shortage Sends ETFs Soaring

Palladium supply disruptions in Russia and South Africa have caused the price of palladium to spike, which has sent palladium ETFs soaring

Lee Davidson 4 December, 2012 | 12:12AM
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Exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking palladium surged by 12-16% in November as the largest palladium shortage in a decade hit the market.

According to a report issued by Johnson Matthey (JMAT), palladium inventories have shrunk significantly due to strikes and safety stoppages in South Africa, as well as Russia's plan to cut sales from its strategic government stockpile.

While not widely known, palladium is an extremely common metal used in everything from jewelry and medicine to touch screens and dental crowns. Though palladium has a diversity of uses, it is especially important in the manufacture of automotive catalysts. Currently, roughly half of the production of palladium is used in creating catalytic converters, which are vehicle emissions control devices. Historically, palladium has been primarily found in Russia, especially in the colder regions of Siberia. Some estimates place Russia's share of the global supply of palladium at 45%. Similarly, South Africa is privy to some of the largest stores of palladium as most industry experts peg their global share at 40%. Cumulatively, supply disruptions in regions accounting for 85% of total palladium inventories can easily put upward price pressure on palladium.

Best Performing ETFs in November

Meanwhile, ETFs tracking S&P 500 volatility futures (i.e. the VIX index and its close cousins) fell by 11-24% during the month of November. Volatility-linked products typically spike when expected future volatility (i.e. 'fear') rises. When investors are fearful and uncertain, they will demand higher expected returns and thus pay less for assets in the present. This relationship between volatility and share prices can make vehicles that follow the VIX good diversifiers for equity-based portfolios. Some assets, like commodities and government bonds, show near-zero correlations to stocks, but volatility has a strong negative correlation with stock prices. After peaking at a record high near 96.4 in October 2008, the spot VIX traded down to a low of just above 15 in early April 2010, before spiking again to 48.2 in May 2010. In April 2011, the VIX dropped to a low of 14.27, before spiking right back up to 48 in August. Since then, the VIX has trended down to its typical range of 15 to 25. Currently, the VIX index sits at approximately 16, very near its historical floor. 

Worst Performing ETFs in November

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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About Author

Lee Davidson

Lee Davidson  is Head of Manager and Quantitative Research.

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