The Week: Dividends, Retailers and Banks

Morningstar columnist Rodney Hobson discusses the summer dividend payments, retailers' struggles and banks' troubles

Rodney Hobson 13 July, 2012 | 1:45PM
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Enjoy the Summer
Despite the slippage in the FTSE 100 index this week, I remain optimistic about shares for the foreseeable future. This is still a time for those who believe that the glass is half full rather than half empty.

Investors are perhaps beginning to live with the ongoing crisis in the eurozone, which has not been settled, shows no signs of ever being settled and will not be settled by individual countries dropping out.

It is an issue that will pop up to haunt us from time to time but with the FTSE managing to hold above 5,600 points we may as well carry on collecting our dividends.

The summer months from May to August are the ones in which most dividends are paid so enjoy the bank returns if not the weather or the stock market gyrations.

Taking a Pounding
The possibility that cheap and cheerful Poundland could be preparing itself for a stock market flotation says a lot about the state of the High Street. Poundland, which gets its name from the price it charges for individual items, has appointed former Tesco (TSCO) finance director Andrew Higginson as chairman.

You wouldn't expect any retailer to risk coming to market in the current climate—indeed, we have seen a dearth of any kind of company coming to market for the past four years. If Poundland is only toying with the possibility it is a sign of how tough life is for those trying to charge higher prices as shoppers switch down market.

Marks & Spencer (MKS) is among the strugglers, with like-for-like UK sales down 2.8% in the 13 weeks to 30 June. The big problem is clothing and home, down 6.8%. I do wish that M&S would split these two sectors, as I suspect that home is absolutely dire and is pulling down clothing, which is just moderately bad.

Yet all is not gloom. Part of the fall in shop sales comes from the 14.9% rise in click-and-collect online sales, admittedly from what is still a comparatively low base, so the total sales figure is minus 0.7%, bad enough but not as dire as the misleading like-for-likes.

Food continues to grow, albeit slowly at 0.8% in the latest period, but M&S food as we all know is not cheap so clearly there are people out there with some cash to spend on better quality.

John Dixon, head of food, is switching to fashion and furniture. This is a risky move, as food is losing his expertise while he may not display the same acumen in clothing and housewares.

There is no doubt that M&S, along with all retailers, has suffered from the unseasonable weather and it is hardly surprising that summer clothing has been hard to shift. Yet I feel that there is a deeper malaise and I would want some tangible evidence that issues are being addressed effectively before I consider investing.

At least M&S is not in the same mess as JJB Sports (JJB). If a sports retailer cannot prosper in a summer that includes European football, the Olympic Games and a British men's singles finalist at Wimbledon, what hope is there?

Bad Banks
Hardly a day goes by without some bad news about one bank or another, or sometimes about all of them. We are getting the first press reports of the size of bill that banks may face for fiddling LIBOR, and judging from the size of fine Barclays (BARC) paid for coming clean it is likely to be an expensive business.

Bank shares are cheap but, as we have discovered repeatedly since 2007, the banks have demonstrated that many people at the top had insufficient knowledge of what those at the coal face were doing.

We shall be hearing more examples of the Andy Coulson defence (I really ought to have known what was going on but I made sure that I didn't) following its use by Bob Diamond of Barclays and Paul Tucker of the Bank of England.

A lot of dust needs to settle before bank shares are worth buying.

Market Performance (July 9-13)
FTSE 100 Index
: Pending
FTSE 250 Index: Pending
FTSE UK All Share Index: Pending
FTSE Small-Cap Index: Pending
FTSE AIM 100 Index: Pending
FTSE Fledgling: Pending

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About Author

Rodney Hobson

Rodney Hobson  is a columnist for Morningstar.co.uk and author of several investing books, including The Dividend Investor and How to Build a Share Portfolio.

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