What to Expect from the Week Ahead

With trading volumes at a summer low and fragile market sentiment, data from China, the U.S. and the eurozone and the Fed’s rate-setting meeting will test investors’ nerves

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 5 August, 2011 | 2:50PM
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With the FTSE 100 losing over 8% over the week and very few bright spots on the calendar for the coming trading days, it’s hard to imagine that next week will be a walk in the park for global investors (except, perhaps, for those who have decided to leave their desks).

With trading volumes in their usual summer low and market sentiment evidently fragile, a multitude of macroeconomic data points could induce volatility in next week’s trade.

Starting on Tuesday, the U.K., Germany and the U.S. will all report international trade statistics for June, while China releases import and export data for July. In addition, inflation figures for July are due from China on Tuesday and Germany on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report due on the same day. It is possible that after soft economic data from the U.S. completely decapitated global risk appetite this week, investors are particularly sensitive to signs of economic softness coming from Asia and the eurozone’s strongest economies.

That said, the spotlight will continue to shine on the U.S, with the Federal Open Monetary Committee convening on Monday and Tuesday. Expectations for an interest rate change are low and no official press conference is scheduled for August. Just hours before the end of the trading week, Friday’s U.S. retail sales for July, business inventories for June and consumer confidence for August will provide investors with more insight into the likelihood that the world’s largest economy will experience a double-dip recession.

On the corporate front, few London-listed blue chips are left to report on the tail end of second-quarter earnings season. Among them, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) and TUI Travel (TT.) will update on how the travel and leisure sector is faring on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. While it is likely that both companies have seen travellers from developed markets become thriftier with their expenditure, several tailwinds leave room for optimism. In the case of InterContinental, investors could be looking for growth in their Asia division; in the case of TUI Travel, the impact of softer commodity prices in the second quarter could attract focus.

Meanwhile, income-seekers may be interested to hear from utilities provider International Power (IPR) when it reports interim results on Tuesday. Speaking of dividends, eight FTSE 100 members, including heavyweights Rio Tinto (RIO), Barclays (BARC) and Standard Chartered (STAN), will trade ex-divided on Wednesday, weighing on the mid-week market performance.

Apart from updates scheduled on the economic and corporate calendar, eurozone debt worries will continue to inadvertently impact market sentiment. At the time of writing, Italian and Spanish debt yields were at 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively, disturbingly close to the 7% mark that market participants have dubbed as the panic level. “This cut-off point is somewhat arbitrary”, says Morningstar’s equity analyst Jim Leonard, but this is not to say the market cannot act on its own convictions regardless of their origin.

Monday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Telecity Group (TCY) interims
International Economic Announcements
Japan: M3 Money Supply for July, Current Account Total for June, Trade Balance for June, Bankruptcies for July
Eurozone: Bank of France Business Sentiment for July, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for August

Tuesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Greggs (GRG) interims, International Power (IPR) interims, Wm Morrison Supermarkets (MRW) interims
U.K. Economic Announcements
BRC Like for Like Sales for July, RICS House Price Balance for July, Industrial Production for June, Manufacturing Output for June, Visible Trade Balance for June, Non-EU Trade Balance for June, NIESR GDP estimate for July
International Economic Announcements
China: CPI for July, PPI for July, Trade Balance for July, Industrial Production for July,
Japan: Consumer Confidence for July, Machine Tool Orders for July
Eurozone: German Current Account for June
U.S.: NFIB Small Business Optimism for July, Unit Labour Costs for 2Q, Non-Farm Productivity for 2Q, FOMC Rate Decision for August

Wednesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
InterContinental Hotels Group interims, Standard Life (SL.) interims, TUI Travel (TT.) 3Q
U.K Ex-dividend Date
FTSE 100: Barclays (BARC), BT Group (BT.A), GKN (GKN), Rio Tinto (RIO), RSA Insurance Group (RSA), Schroders (SDR), Standard Chartered (STAN), Unilever (ULVR)
FTSE 250: Greene King (GNK), Hiscox (HSX), Meggitt (MGGT), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MLC), Northumbrian Water Group (NWG), Pennon Group PLC (PNN), DS Smith (SMDS), Spirent Communications (SPT), St Modwen Properties (SMP), Synergy Health (SYR)
U.K. Economic Announcements
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Tertiary Industry Index for June, Domestic CGPI for July
Eurozone: German CPI for July, French Industrial Production for June, French Current Account for June, French Manufacturing Output for June
U.S.: Wholesale Inventories for June, August Monthly Budget Statement for July

Thursday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Aquarius Platinum (AQP) FY 2011, Grainger (GRI) interim management statement
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Machine Orders for June
Eurozone: ECB Monthly Report
U.S.:Trade Balance for June, Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
EnQuest (ENQ) interims
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Industrial Production for June, Capacity Utilisation for June
Eurozone: French CPI for July, French GDP for 2Q, French Non-Farm Payroll for 2Q, French Wage Growth for 2Q, Eurozone Industrial Production for June
U.S.: Retail Sales for July, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence for August, Business Inventories for June

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