What to Expect from the Week Ahead

While sovereign debt concerns continue to rattle markets, the latest Monetary Policy Committee minutes and retail sales will offer insights into the U.K. recovery

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 15 July, 2011 | 6:56PM
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The sovereign debt situation on both sides of the Atlantic is more than likely to continue dominating headlines in the upcoming week.

The focus in Europe is on how a potential risk default will reverberate through other peripheral economies, namely Italy. Markets have already disregarded the popular argument that Spain is higher up the list of debt-sustainability concerns than Italy, leaving investors needing reassurance from Rome that it can rein in its expenditure and adopt an austerity budget in due course.

In Washington DC, another last-minute decision on the U.S. debt ceiling is on the cards and is necessary to prevent the world’s largest economy from defaulting on its debt. Democrats and Republicans need to reach an agreement by Friday, July 22, in order for legislation to be passed in time.

“We will be pleasantly surprised if a deal can be completed in the near term (especially a deal such as the most recently reported package, which would cut the deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years). However, we expect the negotiations will go down to the wire before one side or the other blinks,” Michael Hodel, an associate director of research with Morningstar, recently wrote.

Recent market volatility suggests that investors are increasingly concerned that the political tug-of-war may yield negative market consequences and this volatility is likely to continue to creep into the markets in the week ahead.

In the U.K., the minutes from the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Committee meeting are due on Wednesday. The text will be closely examined for any concerns that recent soft economic indicators may have sparked among Committee members. In view of such concerns, expanding the Bank’s quantitative easing programme is “clearly back on the table,” commented Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Global Insight. However, he added that “we doubt that any MPC member joined Adam Posen in voting for such a move at the July meeting.”

Also of note, U.K. retail sales figures for June will be out on Thursday. Expectations are for a marginal improvement from May but few signs that British consumers have loosened their purse strings in the tough economic environment. Such an unfavourable business climate recently fed into the cautious outlook spelled out in Marks & Spencer’s (MKS) first-quarter update. In the week ahead, trading updates from SABMiller (SAB) and Mitchells & Butlers (MAB), both scheduled for Wednesday, will shed more light on consumers’ thirst for spending in the beverage sector.

Elsewhere among the scheduled corporate announcements, yield-seekers may be interested to hear from utility companies Severn Trent (SVT) and United Utilities Group (UU.), which will issue interim management statements on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. “The outlook for rising profits and dividends make utility companies attractive for cautious investors,” Morningstar columnist Rodney Hobson recently wrote.

Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
SThree (STHR) interims
UK Economic Announcements
Rightmove House Prices for July, Nationwide Consumer Confidence for June
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Department Store Sales for June
U.S.: NAHB for July

Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
IG Group Holdings (IGG) preliminaries, Land Securities Group (LAND) Interim Management Statement (IMS), Severn Trent IMS
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: Eurozone Construction Output for May, German and eurozone ZEW Surveys for July
U.S.: Housing Starts and Building Permits for June

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
International Personal Finance (IPF) interims, Kingfisher (KGF) strading update, SABMiller Annual General Meeting, Mitchells & Butlers IMS
Ex-dividend Date
FTSE 100: Icap (IAP), Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT)
FTSE 250: Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS), Halma (HLMA)
UK Economic Announcements
Bank of England MPC Meeting Minutes for July
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Convenience Store Sales for June
Eurozone: German Producer Prices for June, Eurozone Consumer Confidence for July
U.S.: Existing Home Sales for June

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
The Capita Group (CPI) interims, Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) interims
UK Economic Announcements
PSNCR and PSNB for June, Retail Sales for June
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: July PMI Surveys for France, Germany and the eurozone, Eurozone Current Account for May
U.S.: Weekly Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators for June, Philadelphia Fed Survey for July

Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
Beazley (BEZ) interims, Close Brothers Group (CBG) trading statement, Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC) IMS, United Utilities Group IMS, Vodafone Group (VOD) IMS
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Supermarket Sales for June
Eurozone: French Company Production Outlook for July, French Business Confidence Outlook for July, German IfO Surveys for July

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