News Corp. May Have to Raise Its BSkyB Offer

While News Corporation’s third-quarter results did not surprise and the company remains comfortable with its BSkyB offer, uncertainty factors remain

Michael Corty, CFA 6 May, 2011 | 9:52AM
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News Corporation's (NWS, NWSA) fiscal third-quarter results did not contain any surprises, as the tough comparables with Avatar were widely anticipated. We're maintaining our fair value estimate of $17 and we believe the shares are fairly valued. The cable networks (more than 60% of operating profit) were again the driver of sales and profits in the quarter. Overall sales declined 6% to $8.3 billion as the 14% increase in cable network revenue was not enough to offset the 36% decline in filmed entertainment, which occurred because of lapping Avatar in the year-ago quarter. The cable network growth was fuelled by higher advertising and affiliate fees from Fox News and Fox International. News Corp.'s other segments performed about as expected, and the overall year-to-date operating margin of 13% is on target to meet our full-year forecast of 14%.

Once again, president Chase Carey said that News Corp. remains comfortable with its offer price for British Sky Broadcasting (BSY). However, if the deal gets regulatory approval in the UK we believe News Corp. will have to raise its offer price, given BSkyB's recent strong operating performance. Carey indicated that the company may have to use its $12 billion cash balance in another way, which we view as risky if it looks to make a different acquisition, given News Corp.'s recent record in this area.

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Michael Corty, CFA  Michael Corty, CFA, is an equity analyst with Morningstar.

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