Spot the Clouds on SABMiller's Horizon

SABMiller is one of our favourite wide moat companies, but cost pressures and weak consumer spending in develop markets remain as challenges

Philip Gorham, CFA 31 March, 2011 | 10:25AM
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Morningstar equity analysts have this week been attending the Consumer Analyst Group of Europe conference in London, highlights from which included updates from Imperial Tobacco and SABMiller.

SABMiller (SAB)
We like the SABMiller emerging markets story, and the firm’s presentation at CAGE did nothing to shake our opinion. However, attractive opportunities to buy the stock are rare, and at over 19 times fiscal 2011 earnings, we think SABMiller is currently slightly overvalued. Yet, commodity cost pressures and weak consumer spending in developed markets are clouds that remain on the horizon, and any incremental weakness in the second half of calendar 2011 could provide a downside catalyst. We recommend investors keep their powder dry before building a position in one of our favourite wide moat companies.

CEO Graham MacKay presented at CAGE and provided some granularity on how the firm intends to cust costs in an attempt to offset commodity cost increases. Common global SAP systems, the centralization of some supply chain and back office functions, and a transition to central procurement form the backbone of the company’s plan to shave costs. We are not concerned about SABMiller’s ability to offset input cost inflation, because on top of these cost savings, we expect a favorable product mix, driven by trading up in emerging markets, and pricing of up to 5% to be more than enough to fend off margin pressures.

Intriguingly, MacKay left the door open to an acquisition of Foster’s beer business. Local brands matter in the brewing industry, and economies of scale from incremental intra-market volume are very strong, while economies of scale from cross-market volume are much weaker. With SABMiller already having a significant presence in Foster’s core markets, including the U.K. and Australia, we expect the firm to be interested in acquiring the Australian brewer, particularly if no rival bidders emerge.

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About Author

Philip Gorham, CFA  Philip Gorham, CFA, is an associate director of equity research for Morningstar.

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