What to Expect from the Week Ahead

Sustained concern with the situation in Libya and its impact on oil prices, full-year results from commodity majors, a BoE rate decision and trade data are on the cards next week

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 4 March, 2011 | 6:32PM
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The quickly deteriorating situation in Libya will likely continue to dominate headlines and investor sentiment alike next week. The promise of a peace plan supported by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, which gave oil prices and risk aversion a brief respite on Thursday this week, has been overshadowed by news of new waves of violence not far from Tripoli which will sustain investors’ concerns over the Middle East next week.

That said, commodity majors Petrofac (PFC), Antofagasta (ANTO) and Tullow Oil (TLW) are announcing full-year results next week, while BHP Billiton (BLT) and Rio Tinto (RIO) are trading ex-dividend on Wednesday, which suggests that corporate news, in addition to geopolitical updates, will be swaying equity markets.

On the same note, insurers Old Mutual (OML), Prudential (PRU) and Standard Life (SL.) are all reporting full-year results next week, one every day between Tuesday and Thursday.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England is due to make its March interest rate decision on Thursday. Evidence of disagreement within the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee has accumulated since the last rate decision was taken in February and economists and fund managers alike have shared expectations of a rate hike. On Thursday this week the European Central Bank also signalled that it is likely to raise rates in the short term, increasing the pressure on the MPC to change the status quo.

Following the BoE announcement on Thursday, inflation and industrial production data for February will be released by China on Friday. China has been the prime target of global inflationary concerns. Responses to price and growth dynamics by the People's Bank of China have proven the ability to induce market responses, be they as it may short-lived.

Also on the economic announcements front, a number of countries are reporting their foreign trade balances next week. Import and export figures from Japan are due on Monday, followed by France on Tuesday, the UK on Wednesday, Germany and the US on Thursday. In the case of France and Germany, the numbers will shed some light on how exports are contributing to economic recovery on the continent. The UK figures reported next week do not include trade with the EU.

Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Inmarsat (ISAT) preliminaries, Intertek Group (ITRK) preliminaries, Petrofac (PFC) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Michael Page International (MPI) preliminaries, SDL (SDL) preliminaries

International Economic Announcements
Japan: Money Supply for February, Trade Balance for January
Eurozone: German Retail Sales for EC Sentix Investor Confidence for March
US: Consumer Credit for January

Tuesday
International Women’s Day

UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Antofagasta (ANTO) preliminaries, Old Mutual (OML) preliminaries, Weir Group (WEIR) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Ashtead Group (AHT) 3Q, Inchcape (INCH) preliminaries, Pace (PIC) preliminaries, Spirax-Sarco Engineering (SPX) preliminaries, Tullett Prebon (TLPR) preliminaries

UK Economic Announcements
BRC Like for Like Sales for February, RICS House Price Balance for February

International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: Bank of France Business Sentiment for February, French Trade Balance for January, German Factory and Machine Orders for January, Bankruptcies for February
US: NFIB Small Business Optimism for February

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Prudential (PRU) preliminaries, The Restaurant Group (RTN) preliminaries, Tullow Oil (TLW) preliminaries; FTSE 250: F&C Asset Management (FCAM) preliminaries

Ex-dividend Date
FTSE 100: BHP Billiton (BLT), British American Tobacco (BATS), Hammerson (HMSO), Serco Group (SRP), Shire (SHP); FTSE 250: Ashmore Group (ASHM), Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW), Domino Printing Sciences (DNO), Dunelm Group (DNLM), Hays (HAS), Renishaw (RSW), Spirent Communications (SPT), Sportingbet (SBT), St Modwen Properties (SMP)

UK Economic Announcements
BRC Shop Price Index for February, Visible and non-EU Trade Balance for January

International Economic Announcements
China: Trade Balance for February
Eurozone: German Industrial Production for January
US: Wholesale Inventories for January

Thursday
Morningstar Events
Investment Conference Europe and European Fund Awards 2011

UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Aggreko (AGK) preliminaries, Morrison Supermarkets (MRW) preliminaries, Schroders (SDR) preliminaries, Standard Life (SL.) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Computacenter (CCC) preliminaries, Derwent London (DLN) preliminaries, Dignity (DTY) preliminaries, Laird preliminaries, Yule Catto & Co (YULC) preliminaries

UK Economic Announcements
Bank of England Base Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Target, Industrial Production for February

International Economic Announcements
Japan: 4Q GDP, Corporate Goods Price Index for February
Eurozone: French Industrial Production for January, French Manufacturing Output for January, German Current Account for January
US: Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance for January, Industrial and Manufacturing Production for January

Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 250: JD Wetherspoon (JDW)

UK Economic Announcements
Producer Price Index for February

International Economic Announcements
China: Consumer and Producer Price Indices and Industrial Production for February
Eurozone: German CPI for February
US: Retail Sales for February, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence for March, Business Inventories for January

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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