Sovereign Default Risks Brewing Once Again

European corporate bond spreads widened 10 basis points last week, with an even greater weakening in the financial sector

Dave Sekera 16 November, 2010 | 9:07AM
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Going into last week, credit spreads in the US for many industrial issuers were at their tightest level for the year. As the week wore on, we experienced a bit of a backup as industrial spreads slowly widened. However, the financial sector picked up the slack and tightened enough to result in a 3-basis-point tightening in the Morningstar Corporate Bond Index to +149. All in all, it was an orderly market. The new issue market continues to be robust, and we did not see any significant credit-specific events in the domestic credit markets.

The European credit markets did not fare as well. Sovereign default fears, which had been brewing under the surface, rose to the forefront by the middle of last week. As a result, European corporate bond spreads widened 10 basis points, with an even greater weakening in the financial sector.

Over the past month, Ireland's 10-year bonds have widened more than 200 basis points on a nearly 20-point drop, bottoming out below 75. These bonds ended the week at 77 with a resulting yield of 8.07%, a +580 spread to Bunds. This dragged the other periphery European sovereign credits wider as well.

Five-year credit default swaps widened across the board, with several past their previous highs. Portugal widened 40 basis point to +480 (a new high), Spain widened to +280 (back to its prior high), and Greece widened 30 basis points to +880 (a 200-basis-point widening over the past month). This spread widening is evidence of the credit markets warning of increased default risk.

Even though Ireland reportedly has enough cash to last through the second quarter of 2011, we expect that the rapid decline in Ireland's bond price will prompt the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund to provide a backstop financing plan in the near term. In fact, as rumours of an emergency financing package began to swirl about at the end of last week.

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