We Are Raising Our Fair Value Estimate for ARM

Yet, we still contend that ARM's recent stock price discounts a variety of risks, especially those surrounding the tablet market

Brian Colello, CPA 18 February, 2011 | 9:16AM
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We have revisited our long-term assumptions for ARM Holdings (ARM), and we are raising our fair value estimate for the firm to 444p from 322p, based upon improved near-term and long-term revenue growth assumptions. However, we still contend that ARM's recent stock price discounts a variety of risks, especially those surrounding the tablet market.

We now project 20% revenue growth from ARM in 2011, up from our prior estimate of 9%, mainly due to higher licensing fees from agreements with a variety of chipmakers and technology firms. We also forecast that ARM will be able to modestly increase its overall royalty rate over time, driven by favourable deals with leading chipmakers that rely on ARM's intellectual property to develop advanced microprocessors for the smartphone and tablet markets. We are optimistic about ARM's ability to achieve robust revenue growth in the years ahead, especially as smartphones, which carry higher ARM-based silicon content, displace basic cell phones in the handset industry. We also have high hopes for the future of tablets, which will also likely rely on higher-priced, highly advanced ARM-based processors.

Nonetheless, we don't think it's a certainty that the tablet market will live up to its recent buzz, especially since many prominent tablet products haven't even hit the market yet. Gartner predicts that the tablet market will grow from roughly 17 million unit shipments in 2010 to 200 million by 2014 (by comparison, Gartner estimates that about 200 million portable PCs were sold in 2010). If the tablet market fails to live up to these lofty projections, ARM's future revenue growth and profitability may disappoint investors. Additionally, a variety of other factors, such as an inability to raise its royalty rates on high-end mobile microprocessors, or increased competition from Intel INTC in the mobile space, could restrict the firm's revenue growth. Yet, we believe that sky-high expectations are baked into ARM's current stock price. We don't believe the company will capture the same sort of value from tablets as Intel does in the PC space, mainly because, unlike Intel, ARM does none of the chip manufacturing and splits wireless processor research-and-development with customers such as Qualcomm (QCOM). In order for ARM to live up to the recent hype, the company, its customers, and key end markets such as smartphones and tablets can't afford a slip-up and will have to fire on all cylinders in the years ahead.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Brian Colello, CPA  is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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