BT Shares Worth £2.93

BT should stick to providing telephone and internet, say analysts, as this is where it has a competitive advantage over peers which translates into profit for shareholders

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 4 March, 2014 | 2:53PM
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While BT (BT.A) struggles to grow its revenue, the firm is doing a fantastic job of improving efficiency. The firm continues to reduce costs, enabling its margins to improve despite revenue declines, which we think is very impressive.

Additionally, the firm's revenue declines are diminishing with the retail division close to growing again and the Openreach division's external business actually growing year over year during its first nine months of fiscal 2014 thanks to the higher take-up of its fibre optic service. We think BT's fibre optic service will mostly offset revenue declines elsewhere in the retail division and provide growth in the Openreach division. Fibre optic broadband is now available to 18 million premises in the U.K. with 2.4 million customers. The firm has also now won 44 regional bids in the Broadband Delivery UK, or BDUK, project and we expect BT will win all of the remaining ones.

While this should provide some revenue growth, we project it will be at lower margins than the Openreach division's other revenue. However, we are not as enthusiastic regarding BT's other new venture of taking on British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) in television by launching its own sports channels. The firm has spent about £1 billion for content and launch costs. While the business recently won the exclusive rights to the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League and now has 2.5 million customers, BSkyB continues to add broadband customers.

Additionally, as the service is offered free to its broadband customers, we think BT will struggle to earn a decent return on the capital it has invested.  Elsewhere, BT's Global Services division's revenue declines have eased, but we project it is still several years away from returning to growth. The division is fighting both a weak global economy and the headwinds of corporations moving to lower cost Internet based services. Finally, BT continues to struggle with its pension deficit. Despite making a special £2 billion payment in 2012, the deficit remains in excess of £5 billion after tax. We think the market forgets to adjust its valuation of BT for this deficit, which the firm has struggled to rid itself of consistently for over a decade.

We are increasing our fair value estimate for BT to £2.93 per share from £2.80, but the stock is still considered overvalued at the current share price. We have increased our revenue growth expectations.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
BT Group PLC104.70 GBX-0.52Rating

About Author

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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