What to Expect from the Week Ahead

Attractive equity valuations and downbeat economic outlook may pull risk appetite in different directions, while markets take cues from industrial, GDP and inflation data next week

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 12 August, 2011 | 5:33PM
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Market sickness for the risk-averse, bargain hunting for the optimistic--this seems to be what markets promise going into next week.

Despite upbeat trade in the past two sessions, the FTSE 100 index is still over 10% below its end-July levels, while the embattled CAC40 in Paris has shed close to 20% since global markets took a nose dive at the end of last month.

This rapid decline in share prices has left a number of global large-caps trading below their Morningstar fair value estimate, suggesting that long-term investors can find a buying opportunity at current valuations. “This could be the best buying opportunity for years to come,” says experienced investor and Morningstar columnist Rodney Hobson. Aside from betting on individual stocks, investors who chose to read the current market downturn as an erosion of faith rather than an erosion of company fundamentals could take interest in betting on global large-cap funds and leave their bargain hunting to an active manager.

Regardless of risk appetite and market outlook, however, it seems volatility on global markets is not heading for a halt. To tackle this problem, Belgium, France, Italy and Spain introduced a 15-day ban on short selling this Friday. Academic studies, however, are critical of the potential of such a ban. Rather than lead to market stability, such a move has been seen to significantly decrease liquidity and even induce further losses on equity markets – a grim perspective on what may be on the cards next week.

Upcoming economic announcements have the potential to further exaggerate this trend. Markets’ fragile sentiment has been particularly susceptive to macroeconomic news and next week housing and manufacturing data from the U.S. as well as inflation and GDP figures from the E.U. could sway risk appetite.

In the U.K., consumer prices for July, the minutes from the Bank of England’s latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting and retail sales for July are due on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Elsewhere in Europe, German and eurozone second-quarter GDP data is due on Tuesday, followed by German producer prices for July on Friday. Lately, eurozone GDP figures, as well as manufacturing surveys, have served as proof of Europe’s two-speed recovery. Next week’s data may be further closely-examined for a spread between the economic growth of Germany and France, given that Paris has been facing significant sentiment erosion in August.

Across the Atlantic, a torrent of housing data will hit markets on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. In addition, July’s industrial production figures will be out on Tuesday, producer prices on Wednesday and consumer prices on Thursday.

The industrial production numbers might be better than a lot of people expect them to be, says Bob Johnson, director of economic analysis with Morningstar. Johnson, however, says that a better indicator of the strength of the U.S. economy is consumer demand data, such as data from the International Council of Shopping Centers released every Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the corporate front is beginning to quieten down. Only two FTSE 100 companies are reporting interim results next week – Resolution (RSL) on Tuesday and Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation (ENRC) on Wednesday. The miner’s latest production report said it’s operating at full capacity, setting the stage for strong performance but little room for growth. Alongside the sell-off in risky assets, shares in ENRC have slipped 20% since July 29.

Monday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Michael Page International (MPI) interims
International Economic Announcements
U.S.: Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August, Housing Market Index for August, Treasury International Capital for June

Tuesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Resolution interims, SOCO International (SIA) interims
U.K. Economic Announcements
July CPI
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: German 2Q flash GDP, Eurozone 2Q flash GDP, Eurozone Trade Account for June
U.S.: Housing Starts for July, Import and Export Prices for July, Industrial Production for July

Wednesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Balfour Beatty (BBY) interims, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation interims, Exillon Energy (EXI) interims, Henderson Group (HGG) interims
U.K Ex-dividend Date
FTSE100: Anglo American (AAL), British American Tobacco (BATS), Fresnillo (FRES) Hammerson (HMSO), HSBC Holdings (HSBA), Pearson (PSON), Prudential (PRU), Standard Life (SL.)
FTSE250: Ashtead Group (AHT), CSR (CSR), Informa (INF), Mondi (MNDI), Moneysupermarket.com Group (MONY), PZ Cussons (PZC), Ultra Electronics Holdings (ULE)
U.K. Economic Announcements
Bank of England MPC latest meeting minutes, Labour Market Statistics for June and July
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: HICP for July
U.S.: Producer Price Index for July

Thursday
U.K. Economic Announcements
Retail Sales for June
International Economic Announcements
Japan: All Industry Index for
U.S.: CPI for July, Existing Home Sales for July, Philadelphia Fed Survey for August, Leading Indicators for July, weekly jobless claims

Friday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Jupiter Fund Management (JUP) interims
U.K. Economic Announcements
Public Sector Finance for July
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: German PPI for July

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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