Leading UK CFOs Bullish About 2021 After Brexit Deal, Vaccine Rollouts

(Alliance News) - Finance chiefs at major UK firms expect 2021 to be a year growth due to the ...

Alliance News 8 January, 2021 | 5:05AM
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(Alliance News) - Finance chiefs at major UK firms expect 2021 to be a year growth due to the prospect of Covid-19 vaccinations and after Britain avoided crashing out of the EU without a deal, Deloitte said on Friday.

In its fourth quarter survey of business confidence among chief financial officers and finance directors of major UK companies, Deloitte said optimism was at its highest in survey history.

"Finance leaders expect a return to growth in 2021 with optimism rising to a record high," Deloitte explained.

"Despite the surge in business optimism, half of CFOs do not expect demand for their own businesses to recover to pre-pandemic levels until the last quarter of 2021 or later."

Deloitte noted the fourth quarter survey was conducted before new Covid-19 restrictions were announced in the UK on December 19.

Deloitte added: "There has been a sharp improvement in CFO expectations for UK corporates' revenues this quarter with 71% expecting a rise over the next 12 months, up from 29% in Q3 2020, while over half (53%) of CFOs expect operating costs to rise. For the first time since 2015, a net balance of CFOs are expecting corporate operating margins to increase in the next year."

Risk appetite stayed "weak", however, with just 19% of respondents believing it prudent to take greater risks, though Deloitte noted this was up from 3% in the first quarter of 2020.

Deloitte Chief Economist Ian Stewart said: "Boosted by the prospect of mass vaccination and growth, business sentiment surged this quarter with CFOs taking the most positive view on profit margins for the last five years. This rebound in sentiment occurred despite a backdrop of continued Brexit negotiations and with two thirds of CFOs believing that a no-deal outcome would have a severe or significant negative effect on the economy.

"In the three and a half years between the EU referendum and the pandemic CFOs have ranked Brexit as the top business risk for all but two quarters. The announcement of a deal after the survey closed is likely to have offered an end-year boost to CFO sentiment."

According to the survey, 78% of finance leaders expect Covid-19 restrictions to continue in the first half of 2021, but 57% then predict all restrictions will be gone by the third quarter.

In addition, Deloitte noted that 98% of CFOs expect an increase of flexible and home working, a "fundamental change" caused by the pandemic.

"Business leaders believe the pandemic will permanently change the business landscape. CFOs anticipate a five-fold increase in homeworking relative to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 and believe that the state will be both larger and more active in the long term," Stewart added.

Deloitte noted that 90 finance chiefs participated in the survey, including 12 from FTSE 100 companies and 44 from the FTSE 250.

"The combined market value of the UK-listed companies that participated is GBP308 billion, approximately 13% of the UK quoted equity market," Deloitte added.

By Eric Cunha; ericcunha@alliancenews.com

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