Lower Fair Value, Higher Uncertainty for Nokia

EQUITY RESEARCH: Nokia's second quarter warning shows the Symbian line declining at an accelerating rate

Joseph Beaulieu 1 June, 2011 | 11:12AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

We are cutting our fair value estimate for Nokia (NOK1V) to EUR 9 from EUR 10 after the company announced early Tuesday that second quarter revenues and margins would come in well below management's guidance, and that the company was no longer providing any guidance for the full year. This reverses the fair value increase that we made after the company announced first quarter results.

Our expectation is now for revenues to contract by 3% in 2011, rather than increase by 3% as per our prior model. We also think that gross margins are likely to contract a bit more than we expected on the shift toward lower-model phones and on the margin deterioration across the entire product portfolio. Based on management's comments about sales channel issues in China, we are modelling for higher inventories for the year. This adds up to operating margins of about 1% and negative free cash flows for the full year.

We are also boosting our uncertainty rating to very high from high. We've had a negative view of the Symbian line for a couple of years, but based on management's comments this morning it is clear that the Symbian line is falling more quickly than we had expected. This makes the end-of-year launch of Nokia's Windows Phone line even more critical than it appeared when the transition was announced during the first quarter. However, since very little is known about the handsets themselves or the exact timing of the launch, it is difficult to say exactly how successful those phones will be.

Joseph Beaulieu is a Senior Stock Analyst with Morningstar.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Joseph Beaulieu  Joseph Beaulieu is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures