Tapping the Winners in Wireless Handsets

Our top pick has a strong signal, but could a competitor come calling? We consult our three criteria for a winning smartphone company

Joseph Beaulieu 24 November, 2010 | 3:33PM
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While there have been some changes to the wireless handset industry landscape since our last overview, the basic tenets of our thesis remain unchanged: Handset makers that control both the hardware and the software portions of their platforms are best positioned to maintain long-term competitive advantages. In our view, Apple (AAPL) remains at the top of the heap, and although we're sceptical about Research in Motion's (RIMM) recent strategic moves, we think that RIM remains positioned to be a leader in the smartphone market.

Our three criteria for a winning smartphone company remain unchanged: control of both hardware and software, scale, and true smartphone functionality. In fact, we think that events over the course of 2010 confirm the importance of some of these criteria. Earlier in the year, we saw Palm give up on its efforts to remain independent, because while it certainly met the first and third criteria, it simply did not have the scale to survive. Additionally, we saw Nokia (NOK1V) take steps to regain complete control of its software platform by taking sole, direct control of the Symbian operating system from the consortium that was running it as an open-source platform.

We Think That Motorola Is Captive to the Wireless Carriers
Motorola (MOT) is undeniably on the rebound after years of struggling. Its “Droid” line of handsets are the gold-standard for the Android platform, sales have reacted accordingly, and management is confident enough in the future of the handset division that it plans to spin it out as an independent company in early 2011. However, we still believe that Motorola's handset division is going to have a difficult time generating consistent economic profits. Wireless carriers may like Motorola's phones, but their whole reason for pushing the Android platform is that it allows them to become the centre of the customer relationship.

With multiple handset makers selling phones for the Android platform, this puts any given firm at the mercy of its competitors' product cycles and pricing decisions, and at carriers' decisions as to which handsets to promote and subsidise. While we believe that the Android platform can "lock in" a customer (due to switching costs and habit) as well as the Apple's iOS, there is an important difference: If an iPhone customer is in the market for a new iPhone, they can either pay Apple's price for a current-generation iPhone, or they can wait until the next generation iPhone is available, and pay full-price.

By comparison, if a customer has a first-generation Motorola Droid handset, and is ready to upgrade, there are multiple options on the table: Android handsets from Motorola, HTC, Samsung, and Sony-Ericsson. While a customer may have an inherent preference, decisions by the carrier as to which phones to promote (via placement on their website and email promotions) and which phones to subsidise more heavily could sway a Motorola Droid user to become an HTC Droid user.

Nokia's Muddled Strategy Continues to Cloud Its Advantages
Nokia has scale, control of both hardware and software, and an array of high-end smartphones, so it should be a strong competitor alongside Apple and Research in Motion. However, we continue to believe that Nokia offers far too many handsets, and that its OS strategy is a mess between Symbian, Series 40, and MeeGo (formerly Maemo). However, we believe that new CEO Stephen Elop is beginning to chart a course that could focus Nokia's smartphone efforts on a smaller selection of handsets and one--at most, two--operating systems, thereby reducing developer and consumer confusion.

Apple Is Still Our Top Pick, But Research in Motion's Product Roadmap Concerns Us
Apple, with its iconic iPhone, remains our top pick. The litany of complaints nay-sayers have levelled against the iPhone is long, and a media-driven backlash against the iPhone driven by "antenna-gate" fizzled. Apple has steered clear of complacency, and instead has continued to make improvements to the iOS platform, including allowing for multitasking. As a result, satisfaction metrics for the iPhone remain high, and a majority of iPhone users would still recommend the iPhone to a friend. We believe that Apple would have to make some serious, unforced errors in order to be toppled from its current, lofty perch.

We're less enthusiastic about Research in Motion, and we recently trimmed our fair value estimate on its shares. Despite being the best overall communication devices for phone and email functions, the BlackBerry platform has historically lagged iOS and Android in terms of functions such as web browsing and third-party applications, and the BlackBerry 6 OS doesn't entirely close the gap. We think that the firm’s potentially confusing OS roadmap (the upcoming PlayBook tablet will run on a newly-acquired OS called QNX, and RIM plans to merge the BlackBerry OS with QNX after an intermediate step next year) could put off third-party developers. Like it or not, the availability of third party applications remain extremely important to smartphone adoption.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Apple Inc189.72 USD1.22Rating
BlackBerry Ltd3.23 USD-6.92Rating
Motorola Solutions Inc365.03 USD1.10Rating
Nokia Oyj3.54 EUR-3.21Rating

About Author

Joseph Beaulieu  Joseph Beaulieu is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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