A Mixed Cocktail of Results from Diageo

The spirits company's second half shows any rebound in demand is likely to remain sluggish

Philip Gorham, CFA 26 August, 2010 | 4:05PM
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We think Diageo's premium positioning means that any rebound in demand may be sluggish, and the firm's second-half results bear this out. We're maintaining our fair value estimate.

Volume, internal net sales, and operating profit all increased 2% in the second half. Although the recovery in revenue is an encouraging sign, developing markets--particularly sales of Johnnie Walker--drove the improvement and mature markets remain weak. Volume in North America declined 2% as consumers continued to focus on the value proposition. Despite higher marketing expenses, cost-cutting allowed Diageo to add 30 basis points to its operating margin, which was more than 26%.

Although the firm's performance improved over the course of the year, fiscal 2011 is likely to be challenging because of stubbornly high unemployment and weak consumer sentiment. We expect an unfavourable mix effect to weigh on Diageo's performance in the first half of the next fiscal year. However, marketing spending increased 3% in the second half, and we applaud Diageo's investments in its vodka and rum brands through this challenging period, a strategy that we think will lead to sustainable long-term growth.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Diageo PLC2,850.00 GBX0.46Rating

About Author

Philip Gorham, CFA  Philip Gorham, CFA, is an associate director of equity research for Morningstar.

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