Strong Coffee Sales Boost Nestle in 1Q

We are encouraged by the relatively strong sales growth in the first quarter but we think Nestle will face challenges ahead

Philip Gorham, CFA 22 April, 2010 | 5:30PM
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Nestle's first-quarter sales update confirmed our thesis that weak consumer sentiment in developed markets will weigh on the firm's growth trajectory in the medium term. We are maintaining our fair value estimate.

Reported revenue grew by 4% year over year, or 5% after adjusting for acquisitions and foreign currency. All segments achieved positive growth, although emerging markets and the company's Nespresso coffee brand were the key drivers. Sales in Asia, Oceania, and Africa grew 11%, versus 5% growth in the Americas and Europe, as per capita consumption continued to grow in developing markets. Sales of Nespresso, Nestle's coffee brand that includes coffee machines, accessories, and beans, grew 20%. Nespresso is likely to be the jewel in Nestle's crown throughout 2010 as the brand's footprint grows. Although we are encouraged by the relatively strong sales growth in the first quarter, we think Nestle will face challenges ahead. With the sale of its stake in Alcon to Novartis expected to close in the second half of the year, Nestle will no longer benefit from Alcon's fast-growing pharmaceutical sales. In addition, as consumer demand recovers, we anticipate the prices of Nestle's key raw materials will rise, putting pressure on margins.

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Philip Gorham, CFA  Philip Gorham, CFA, is an associate director of equity research for Morningstar.

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