China week in review

A major new share issue fell below its IPO price on first trading day--this could be a positive sign

Dan Su, CFA 1 February, 2010 | 9:43AM
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Top news of the week
China XD Electric fell below IPO price on first trading day

The stock of China XD Electric, a major power transmission equipment maker that recently raised $1.5 billion in IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed its first trading day below the IPO price. This is certainly unusual for most Chinese investors, who are more used to astronomical first-day pops on the market. In fact, XD Electric is the first stock to fall below its IPO price on the first trading day since August 2006. In the seven months since regulators re-opened the IPO market in China last year, only nine out of more than 100 stocks that debuted on the main board and the growth enterprise board ever fell below their IPO prices.

The poor first-day performance of XD could be sending a positive signal: that the "guaranteed" positive first-day returns are a thing of the past. If this is true, this will be good for the healthy growth of the stock market. Historically, price distortions of new share issuance were common. Regulators, reluctant to see negative first-day returns to make headlines and influence market sentiment, controlled the IPO timetable, influenced the pricing by issuing guidelines on how to value new shares using PE multiples, and even suspended IPOs in a bear market.

Market recap
China’s stock market continued to suffer from worries of tighter credit supply as the government moved to tackle risks of overheating in the economy. Stocks fell for the fourth straight week. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 4.5% to 2,989 points, the largest weekly drop in two months, while the Shenzhen Composite Index decreased 3.6% to 12,137 points. In the first month of trading in 2010, the Shanghai Index fell by 8.8% from the end of last year, while the Shenzhen Index was down by 11.4%.

Macro and industry updates
Land supply from government rose by 44% in 2009

According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, the government supplied 319,333 hectares of land in 2009 for the purposes of infrastructure, welfare housing, residential and commercial real estate. The actual supply was 44% higher than in 2008, when the housing sector was in a deep freeze, but it was below the supply of 507,333 hectares approved for 2009. The market expects the land supply in 2010 to stay flat from 2009, as the government tries to contain rampant speculation in the tier-one cities while increasing supply to smaller cities and towns.

Search engine Baidu to open B2C shopping site in 2010

Baidu will partner with Japanese online shopping mall operator Rakuten to build the ecommerce site for Chinese users, and will hold a 49% stake in the joint venture. According to third-party researcher Analysys, Baidu’s C2C site Youa, designed to gain share in the market currently dominated by Taobao under Alibaba, did not perform as well as the market had expected. In the third quarter of 2009, for example, total value of transactions on Youa represented less than 1% of the Chinese C2C market, far lower than the expected 5.8%.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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About Author

Dan Su, CFA  Dan Su, CFA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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