Climbing confidence fuels financial gains

Banks and insurers made up the majority of the top risers as investors hoped the Treasury's asset protection scheme will draw a line in the sand

Holly Cook 26 February, 2009 | 5:42PM
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A strong financial sector rally saw the FTSE 100 index close comfortably higher on Thursday as the favourable terms of the Government’s asset protection deal with Royal Bank of Scotland and better-than-expected profits from RSA Insurance helped restore confidence in the sector.

Whether the gains can be sustained remains to be seen, however, as market observers warned this could simply be a bear market rally.

The FTSE 100 index closed 1.7% or 66.66 points higher at 3,915.64, while the FTSE 250 index took on 1.4% or 81.60 points at 6,123.75.

By end of play, eight of the top ten performing blue-chips were either banks or financials, but the rally spread further afield than financials alone, with miners recovering after recent weakness and real estate also in demand. Defensives and energy stocks were among the relatively few fallers.

RBS surged 25.5% to 29p after announcing smaller-than-expected losses for 2008, but it was the bank’s deal with the Treasury that attracted the most attention. The Asset Protection Scheme (APS) turned out to be priced more favourably than expected, with the initial fee set at only 2% against forecasts for up to 4%.

However, a swift deterioration in non-performing loans over the second half of last year raised concerns amongst industry analysts.

FinnCap said that if Lloyds Banking Group, which will tomorrow announce full-year results and is expected to accompany these with the terms of its own asset insurance deal, gets similar terms to RBS, Lloyds shares will be the more favourable of the two banks to invest in.

Indeed, Lloyds had jumped into pole position by the market close, up 30.1% to 75p, while fellow banks Barclays and HSBC both gained 7.0% to 113p and 527p, respectively.

Hopes that the APS news will draw a line under the dismal performance of the financial sector and allow the banks to move forward were also fuelled by forecast-busting numbers from RSA Insurance, which topped consensus figures for 2008 profit and said its capital position remains strong. The insurer also announced it is to cut around 1,200 jobs to save costs—a move reportedly being undertaken at fellow insurer Legal & General, which is thought to be slashing 450 jobs from its payroll.

RSA closed 14.1% ahead at 143.8p, while L&G climbed 27.5% higher to 44.5p.

Also on the earnings front, British American Tobacco enjoyed a 2.9% rise to 1,765p after reporting results for what it described as an “excellent” 2008, and Centrica rose 3.0% to 266p after reporting a fall of just 0.4% in operating profits for the year to £1.9 billion.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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