World Growth Falters, but US Economy is Strong

Given stock market volatility, continued negative headlines out of China, and uncertainty over interest rates, one might rightfully expect consumers to be panicking. They are not

Robert Johnson, CFA 29 September, 2015 | 8:30AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Despite a softening world economy, Morningstar’s economic forecast for the US remains relatively unchanged. We have upped the 2015 growth by a seemingly small 0.1%; however, we think the higher end of the range is more likely than we would have believed just three months ago.

If someone pinned us down now, we think GDP growth for the full year is likely to come in at 2.5%. That is partially because the second-quarter rebound was better than previously expected. In addition, the data we have seen so far in the third quarter, especially on the consumer side, suggest that annualised sequential growth in the third quarter could be close to 3%.

The consumer has continued to do well, net exports haven't yet proved to be the disaster everyone expected – mainly because imports have done as poorly as exports, and government spending is no longer falling. Housing continues to provide a meaningful contribution to overall GDP growth, too. Business investment spending remains soft.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Basic member.

Register For Free

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Robert Johnson, CFA  is director of economic analysis with Morningstar.

© Copyright 2021 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Cookies       Modern Slavery Statement