Solid Week for Markets Despite Growth Concerns

Encouraging U.S. data helped support share prices this week, despite concerning reports regarding the global economy

Lee Davidson 20 January, 2012 | 5:27PM Holly Cook
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IMF and World Bank Insist on International Lending to Aid Eurozone Economies
During the week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approached its member nations to contribute an additional $500 billion to meet the projected $1 trillion worth of bail-out funds likely to be demanded over the next two years. The IMF estimates that due to fiscal nightmares plaguing eurozone economies and others it will need to be proactive in lending to troubled nations. The U.S. and U.K. have already noted their hesitation to lend additional funds to the IMF as internal political pressure mounts to balance budgets in both countries.

On Wednesday, the World Bank warned the world's economic and political leaders of slower than anticipated global GDP growth in 2012 down to 2.5%. In presenting the Bank’s forecast, Andrew Burns, Manager of Global Macroeconomics at the World Bank, stated "the situation worldwide has deteriorated significantly since June." Furthermore, the World Bank was adamant that if funds were withheld from troubled eurozone economies, the global growth forecast could be sharply lower. The World Bank estimates that developing economies, in particular, could be hit relatively harder than expected due to falling capital flows and production, rising interest rates, and widening credit spreads. Given these trends, the report stated that developing economies should expect slower growth than in recent years. The World Bank projects 2012 growth in developing economies at 5.4%, marking the second lowest rate in the past 10 years.

U.S. Data Continues to Boost Sentiment
On Thursday, U.S. jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that jobless claims dropped by 50,000 to 352,000 for the week ending January 14, the lowest mark in nearly four years. U.S. inflation also gave cause for optimism as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stayed flat for a second consecutive month despite most economists predicting a modest rise of 0.1%. If inflation were to continue a downward or flat trend, the U.S. Federal Reserve would be more likely to consider another round of quantitative easing.

U.K. Market Moves
In London, the FTSE 100 slipped into the red on Friday, such that the week's performance was trimmed down to 1.6% by close of play. Natural resource plays and financials had been the main forces of market momentum throughout the week, with hopes for the eurozone fuelling a banking sector rally on Thursday, while Essar Energy (ESSR) suffered a turbulent week among commodities on the back of some expensive tax news. Carnival (CCL) also remained in the headlines and in the red on the FTSE 100 as the rescue operation of its Costa Concordia cruise liner continued offshore Italy.

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Lee Davidson

Lee Davidson  is Head of Manager and Quantitative Research.

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