What to Expect from the Week Ahead

Sovereign debt worries will remain on investors’ minds next week, while economic announcements will shed light on US employment and the UK housing market

Holly Cook 26 November, 2010 | 5:29PM
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The furore surrounding Ireland may have calmed down by next week but the issue of sovereign debt contagion is likely to remain at the forefront of investors’ minds, in spite of efforts by European leaders to quail fears. Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodrigo Zapatero was quoted on Friday as saying there was no need for the nation to consider a rescue package and that the country’s deficit reduction plan was being scrupulously carried out.

Still, though the European Central Bank is highly unlikely to make any changes to interest rate this week when it convenes on Thursday, there may need to be a conversation about how far the European Financial Stability Facility can stretch if a domino effect comes into play across the eurozone.

Other key items on the economic agenda next week include US employment data, with third-quarter productivity figures on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday and—the main event on the US calendar this week—November non-farm payrolls and unemployment statistics on Friday. The latter is widely seen as the month’s earliest indicator of any improvement, or deterioration, in the health of the US economy.

Closer to home, the British housing market will be in the spotlight next week as the Bank of England unveils changes in mortgage approvals for house purchases in the month of October and Hometrack reports its latest house price survey—both on Monday, to be followed on Tuesday by Nationwide’s own house price index.

From the stock market point of view, the FTSE 100 index is up 10% over the past three months, in spite of a moderate correction in recent weeks as sovereign debt fears escalated once again. “The UK index is now entering the sort of correction levels whereby if we are to maintain the bullish momentum into the end of the year with the traditional Christmas rally, we could see buyers re-emerge to pick up stocks at these lower levels,” commented City Index head of equities Giles Watts on Friday.

Focusing on specific equities, UK investors will welcome the opportunity to dream of sunnier climes next week, particularly as the British Isles are forecast to be dealing with snow and sleet, as travel operators TUI Travel and Thomas Cook Group report results. The former has been in the headlines once again recently amid speculation about whether parent company TUI will launch a bid for the shares it does not already own.

Elsewhere, Aberdeen’s update on Tuesday will focus the spotlight on asset managers. Hopes of solid gains in assets under management, accompanied by improving margins, helped push the price of Aberdeen shares to their highest level seen in a year earlier this month.

Other corporate results of note include preliminary full-year numbers from software firm Sage on Wednesday, an interim trading update from retailer Kingfisher on Thursday and traffic figures from British Airways on Friday.

Monday
UK Corporate Announcements

FTSE 250: JPMorgan European Smaller Companies Trust (JESC) interims

UK Economic Announcements
Hometrack Housing Survey for November, Net Consumer Credit for October, Mortgage Approvals for October

International Economic Announcements
Japan: Household Spending for October, Unemployment Rate for October, Industrial Production for October
EU: EC Economic Sentiment

Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 250: Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) preliminaries, Halma (HLMA) interims, ITE Group (ITE) preliminaries, Northumbrian Water Group (NWG) interims, Shaftesbury (SHB) preliminaries

UK Economic Announcements
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for November, Nationwide House Prices for November

International Economic Announcements
Japan: Construction Orders for October
France: Producer Prices for October
Germany: Unemployment for November
EU: Estimate CPI for November, Unemployment Rate for October
US: Chicago PMI for November, Consumer Confidence for November, NAPM Milwaukee for November, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: The Sage Group (SGE) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Thomas Cook Group (TCG) interims

Ex-dividend Dates
FTSE 100: John Matthey (JAMT), Land Securities (LAND), National Grid (NG.), SAB Miller (SAB), Severn Trent (SVT); FTSE 250: Caledonia Investments (CLDN), Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT), Helical Bar (HCLC), Homeserve (HSV), Intermediate Capital Group (ICP), JD Sports Fashion (JD.), Ladbrokes (LAD), London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), The Morgan Crucible Company (MGCR), Perpetual Income & Growth Investment Trust (PLI), Tate & Lyle (TATE)

UK Economic Announcements
PMI Manufacturing Survey for November

International Economic Announcements
EU: PMI Manufacturing Survey for November
US: 3Q Non-Farm Productivity, 3Q Unit Labour Costs, ISM Manufacturing Survey for November, ISM Prices Paid for November, Construction Spending for October

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: Kingfisher (KGF) trading update, TUI Travel (TT.) preliminaries; FTSE 250: Britvic (BVIC) preliminaries, Marston's (MARS) preliminaries,

UK Economics Announcements
PMI Construction Survey for November

International Economic Announcements
France: Unemployment for 3Q
EU: 3Q GDP, 3Q Household Consumption, PPI for October, ECB Interest Rate Announcement
US: weekly jobless claims, Monster Employment Index, pending home sales

Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
FTSE 100: British Airways (BAY) traffic figures; FTSE 250: The Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG), Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust (EWI), Greene King PLC (GNK)

UK Economic Announcements
PMI Service Sector Survey for November

International Economic Announcements
EU: Service Sector Survey for November, Retail for October
US: Unemployment for November, change in non-farm, private sector, and manufacturing payroll for November, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for November, Factory Orders for October

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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