The field of behavioural finance examines the intersection between
psychology and economic decision-making. In his fascinating recent book,
Your Money and Your Brain, Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig
examines a heretofore little-known aspect of behavioural finance:
neuroeconomics, or how our brains respond in real-life financial
situations. I recently sat down with Jason to discuss investor behaviour
and his tips for becoming a better investor.
Christine Benz: People may be familiar with behavioural finance.
How is neuroeconomics different?
Jason Zweig: What neuroeconomics does is take the high-technology
tools of contemporary neuroscience, which centre on the ability to
observe activation in the brain at the regional level. So you're able to
see which areas of the brain are activated under particular
circumstances, and then you correlate that activity to behaviour and
also to the stimulus that triggered the activity in the first place.
So, for example, if our objective is to learn something about the brain
processes that determine risk-seeking behaviour, we might present
somebody with the option to make a small amount of money or lose a large
amount of money, and see what's happening at the level of neurons in
that person's brain. The best-established finding is the evidence that
Kahneman and Tversky presented roughly 30 years ago, that people feel
the intensity of a loss about twice as strongly as they feel the
pleasure of an equivalent gain. So losing $100 hurts 2 to 2.5 times more
than winning $100 feels good. The neuroeconomic experiments tend to
confirm that because they show that losing money activates parts of the
brain that are associated with physical pain or disgust, like smelling
vomit or stepping in dog doo. So that's the first level that confirms it.
Benz: You went through some of this testing to examine your own
brain's response to financial performance--in relation to some of these
stimuli. What were some of the interesting things you found out about
yourself?
Zweig: The first thing I learned wasn't particularly surprising
to me, and certainly was no surprise to my wife, which is that I perform
no better than anybody else, and in some cases worse, on the kinds of
tasks that you might be presented with in one of these experiments. I
think the only unusual thing about me is that I've been shown in at
least one experiment to have an unusual degree of patience. I'm willing
to wait considerably longer than the typical person to get a reward.
Benz: And that's an advantage in investing.
Zweig: It is, but what's interesting about that is that that's
not exactly what my brain scan showed. It's what a behavioural test
showed. So it appears that through many years of training and
discipline, and studying Benjamin Graham's work, and simply observing
the markets and learning about financial history, I seem to have trained
myself to become more patient than my genetic and biological makeup
would suggest I naturally am.
The biggest and most surprising lesson to me came in an experiment that
I did at Emory University. It was an example of what Gregory Berns, the
neuroscientist who did the experiment, calls "learning without
awareness." It turns out there are very powerful functions in the brain
that enable us to recognise patterns without ever becoming aware we've
been exposed to them. This pattern-seeking behaviour in the human mind
is just an incredibly powerful function. Most of us don't realise how
automatic it is, and at what an involuntary level it occurs. So a lot of
the trading behaviour and what we might call "Cramer-like" behaviour,
where people see something happen two or three times in a row and just
assume it's going to happen again, that sort of thing goes on in your
brain whether you want it to or not. And it can drive your behaviour
even when you're trying to resist it unless you have formal decision
structures in place to prevent yourself from acting on it.
In these particular experiments I was being asked to engage in a
probability guessing experiment that required a lot of conscious
thought, much like playing a game of checkers or backgammon.
Simultaneously, I was being presented with a much more basic stimulus,
which was that I was getting little sips of sugar water. And there was a
pattern to the sips of sugar water that my conscious brain paid no
attention to because I was trying to solve the more complicated problem.
But the unconscious part of my brain soon detected what was happening
with the sugar water. And the next thing I knew, I was pressing madly
with my right index finger to indicate that I had solved the problem,
even though I had no idea how I had done it. And it was simply that the
pattern of sugar water had started to repeat and that part of my brain
recognised this repetition, while the conscious part of my brain was
still searching for a solution.
That sort of thing goes on all the time in the financial markets. And
individual investors do it, and financial advisors too do it, without
realising it. You may end up investing more in a particular stock
because you saw the CEO on TV and his necktie was your favourite colour.
It sounds absurd to think that people would make financial decisions
based on irrelevant factors like that but they do. And the reason they
do is that things like colours and sounds and smells and tastes and
associations with our past and with ourselves increase our comfort and
familiarity with a frightening world.
These kinds of effects are everywhere, and they surround investors, and
they shape a lot of people's decision-making without their ever
realising it. The reason I harp on this issue again and again is that
the single most exciting frontier in contemporary psychology is the
exploration of these unconscious biases and the fact that unconscious
influences on our behaviour can skew our decisions in ways that are
incredible to people. No one would ever believe that they married their
husband or wife because the person had a last name that began with the
same initial. But if you analyse millions of marriage records, that's
exactly what you find.
Obviously you love your spouse, too, but you may well have been more
attracted to him or her because of a familiar initial and that may
actually be a large part of why you got married. I have no doubt that if
we could analyse people's portfolios, we would find that they're
overweight companies with tickers that remind them of their own names or
their family's names--that they own a disproportionate number of stocks
based close to home or where they grew up.
Benz: So as investors, how do we combat our brains' impulses?
Zweig: There's been a real cult in the past few years of
intuition and gut feeling and hunches. It kind of started with Malcolm
Gladwell's book Blink, and now there's a whole cottage industry
devoted to helping people tap their inner dartboard. At least when it
comes to financial decision-making, it's hard to imagine a worse way to
go about things. It's not that you should never listen to your gut or
that your intuition is always unreliable. It's that intuitions are a
good guide only under very specific instances, and it's primarily
dependent on the nature of feedback. Think of a professional tennis
player, for example. Every decision is consequential. If you make a
mistake, you fall behind in the game because your competition is
intensely competitive, millions of dollars may hang on the result, and
the feedback is instantaneous. If there's a hitch in your swing, the
ball goes the wrong way and you know it went the wrong way.
Now think about feedback in the financial markets. You buy ChristineCorp
and you pay $10 a share. So by the end of the day it's at $10.05, and
you pat yourself on the back and say, "I'm a good stock-picker." And the
next day it goes down to $9.50, and suddenly you think you're a bad
stock-picker. So you sell it and the next thing you know it goes up to
$12. And then what do you decide? Well, you can assume you're a good
stock-picker, because it went up 20% above your original purchase price,
or you can conclude you don't know what you're doing because you sold at
exactly the wrong time. The quality of the feedback varies constantly.
At any given moment, you can look right or wrong because the quality of
the feedback depends on the length of the measurement period. So there's
lousy feedback in the financial markets. It's noisy, it's delayed, it's
ambiguous, and also you can cherry-pick it to lie to yourself, or to
present yourself in a better light to other people.
Because of that, it's especially important to have really good decision
structures. So the first thing is to have a checklist, and to study your
past decisions, and to study the decisions of the world's best
investors, and learn from your mistakes and theirs and come up with a
set of criteria that every investment has to meet in order to be
eligible for inclusion in your portfolio. I suggest a few in my book,
but for individual investors, probably the most important rule would be
never buy an investment purely because it has been going up in price,
and never sell it purely because it has been going down.
I would put the expense ratio first for mutual funds. I would say, I
will never consider a fund with expenses over X. And then I would
probably factor in portfolio turnover, I would factor in tax efficiency,
I would put in a measure of risk, and I would put performance dead last.
In fact, I would also have a decision rule that I can't actually look at
the performance of the fund at all until I've determined a short list of
funds that passed all the other screens. And only then would I look at
performance. Because if you look at performance first, it then becomes
an unconscious bias, and it will skew your analysis of everything else
you look at. So you have to put performance dead last because otherwise
it would be first no matter where you happened to think you're ranking
it.
There was a beautiful study that was published in the The Journal of
Finance a couple of years ago about the selection of institutional money
managers. It basically found that the professionals who pick money
managers, in this case it was pension funds, tend to buy high and fire
low. They invest in whichever managers have the best trailing three-year
performance and then sell whichever have the worst trailing three-year
performance. The study showed that if they had flipped their
decisions--if they had bought the ones with the worst three-year
performance and sold the ones with the best--they actually would have
gotten better returns. And of course if they had done nothing--if they
had just put the portfolio on ice--they also would have done better.
Performance-chasing, despite all the propaganda you hear in the
financial industry, is not purely the province of retail investors. It's
not the so-called "dumb money" on Main Street that buys high and sells
low. Everyone does it.
Frankly I think institutional investors and intermediaries of all kinds,
all the way down to financial advisers who have only a handful of
clients or brokers who have relatively small accounts, are at least as
bad at this as individuals are. There's actually an enormous amount of
evidence to suggest that that's true.
And in fact, common sense would tell you that if you're managing money
for other people, you're also risk-averse, just as they are with their
own money and you are with your own. But you're averse to a different
kind of risk. You're averse to the risk of looking bad to the person
who's paying you a fee. And that can easily incline you to buy high and
sell low. You would want the thing with the best past performance to be
going into the portfolio and you would want whatever has the worst past
performance to be coming out. Because in real time, at the moment of the
decision, it will make you look better.
The problem is that over time, it will not maximize the wealth of your
clients. And that's what the economists call an agency problem. And I
think it's something that advisers really need to combat. The only
effective way I know of doing it is to incorporate a kind of analysis
that most advisers to my knowledge don't use, which is to track not just
the hold portfolio but also the sold portfolio. You have to keep a
continuous record of the performance of the investments you got rid of
to see whether after you got rid of them they did worse. And I know
very, very few advisers who actually do this, and in fact some of them
are puzzled as to why that's necessary. And the simple answer is that
you can't know whether you made a good decision to sell unless you look
at the performance of what you sold after you sold it. Because it's
quite possible it did better after you sold it than it did before you
sold it. And it may have done better after you sold it than the thing
you replaced it with, in which case you made a very foolish decision.
And you can't evaluate whether you made a foolish decision unless you
measure it.
Benz: We've done studies where we've looked at whether turnover
was additive. So we've frozen fund portfolios and have said, what would
this portfolio have returned versus what the manager actually did. And
we've found exactly what you're saying, that had the manager stood still
with what he had a year ago or three years ago, that portfolio would
have outperformed what the fund actually did.
Zweig: It's a very consistent finding and it really shouldn't
surprise anybody. Certainly in the case of stock-picking there are
transaction costs to be considered. Often there are some implementation
delays, where it takes time after you sell one thing to replace it with
another.
But the real reason, the real force that drives that disappointing
return, I think, is psychological. The very moment when something is the
most painful to own, it's most likely to be a future bargain. So if you
sell something that hurts to own, you're very likely to end up getting
rid of something you should have held onto.
And whatever feels the best to buy today is likely to be the thing
you'll regret owning tomorrow. So people are driven by emotion and
psychology to get rid of whatever hurts to own and buy whatever makes
them feel good. What they don't really recognise is that they've just
laid the groundwork for doing the same thing in the future. Because if
it hurts to own it now, it will feel good to own it later. And if it
feels good to own it now, it's going to hurt you to own it later.
Check back later in the week for the second installment of this
interview with Jason Zweig, in which he discusses whether buy and hold
is dead. Christine Benz is Morningstar's director of personal finance.