EU Trade Deal Not Enough To Shield UK From Brexit Hurt - Moody's

(Alliance News) - The UK economy will see "negative macroeconomic consequences" as a result of ...

Alliance News 25 January, 2021 | 2:35PM
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(Alliance News) - The UK economy will see "negative macroeconomic consequences" as a result of the Brexit trade deal, which Moody's Investors Service on Monday said lacks substance.

The ratings agency said the UK economy "will be significantly smaller over the longer term" as a result of the deal, despite being spared the ignominy of a no-deal exit.

"The new Brexit trade deal reached by the United Kingdom and the European Union confirms the macroeconomic cost for the UK sovereign of losing its EU membership, while the economic benefits from new regulatory autonomy remain uncertain," Moody's said.

Moody's added that some aspects of the deal are "skewed in favour of the EU" after the UK accepted "significant new barriers" to trade in some areas.

"As a result, the new arrangement between the UK and EU will entail significant negative macroeconomic consequences for the UK that are structural in nature," Moody's explained, adding that its sovereign rating for the UK already incorporates the negative effects of Brexit, therefore sparing the UK of a downgrade.

Crucial areas of the UK economy, such as services, will see weakness as a result of the agreement, the ratings agency said.

Moody's analyst Benedicte Andries said: "While the Brexit agreement avoids a no-deal scenario, it largely lacks substance in areas vital to the UK economy, such as services. The UK economy will thus be significantly smaller over the longer term."

A post-Brexit trade deal was agreed by negotiators on Christmas Eve after months of talks and frantic last-minute wrangling.

Moody's added: "A weaker economy, the reversal of the stamp duty holiday and a continued subdued labour market could also slow housing market activity and house price inflation, which would affect housing associations that have significant exposure to development for market sale.

"UK insurers will be able to continue transacting in the EU because they already do so through locally regulated subsidiaries. The same applies to European insurers that operate in the UK as they largely do so through UK-regulated subsidiaries. Similar to UK insurers, UK banks with cross-border activities have largely established EU branches and subsidiaries to support their EU customers."

Turning to corporates, the ratings agency said more red tape will add to administrative and operational costs for exporters.

"Moody's expectation that the UK economy will be significantly smaller over the long term as a result of Brexit is negative for all structured finance asset classes. To the extent that the agreement alters sector performance, such as SME default rates or retail real estate prices, the agreement will indirectly affect related deal performance as well," Moody's added.

By Eric Cunha; ericcunha@alliancenews.com

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