Which Crystal Balls Work?

Predictions for the new year are flowing in, but is all this crystal ball-gazing even worthwhile? 

Fidelity Worldwide Investment 17 December, 2012 | 6:00AM

This is part of Morningstar's 'Perspectives' series, which features contributions from third parties such as asset managers, academics and investment professionals.

It’s that time of year again - when everyone becomes Mystic Meg and pretends they know what the next year holds for markets. Fortunately, for those making the predictions, by this time next year no-one will remember what they were because everyone will be too busy looking forward to 2014.

Behind all this crystal ball gazing there is a serious point, however. With the range of stock market returns ranging from a fall of more than 50% to a rise of more than 130% (adjusted for inflation) in the 110 years or so of data in the Barclays Equity Gilt Study, there is clearly merit in trying to unearth the characteristics of markets that are about to soar rather than slump. 

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Fidelity Worldwide Investment

Fidelity Worldwide Investment  

is a global leader in asset management, providing investment products and services to individuals and institutions in the UK, continental Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific. 

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