15 Scary Numbers from the First Quarter

Returns might have been impressive in the first quarter, but there were plenty of other uncomfortable numbers during the first three months of the year

Bearemy Glaser 2 April, 2012 | 2:45PM
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Investors opening up their first-quarter brokerage statements might not find anything too scary. The market posted impressive gains in the first part of 2012. But that doesn't mean there weren't plenty of disconcerting numbers out there. Here are 15 that jumped out at me.

21%: Yield of the new 10-year Greek bonds. It seems that even after the massive write-down in debt, the market remains incredibly sceptical that Greece isn't going to have to go back to the bailout well again.

-0.4%: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimate for gross domestic product growth in Germany, France and Italy in the first quarter of 2012. Not the kind of robust growth the core of the eurozone needs to power through the crisis.

5.4 Million: The number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks and more) in the US in February, little changed from the previous month. The longer this number remains high, the more likely it is that much of this unemployment is structural in nature and not related to cyclical economic factors. That could spell high unemployment for some time for what is meant to be one of the world's strongest economies.

2 Years: The amount of time, at current job-growth rates, needed for the US to regain all of the 8.8 million private-sector jobs lost during the Great Recession.

50%: The unemployment rate of Spaniards under age 25.

£1.39: Average price per litre of unleaded petrol in March in the UK, according to the AA, even higher than records set last May.

60%: The increase in BlackBerry maker Research in Motion's (RIMM) inventory levels from the previous quarter even after a $267 million write-off. BlackBerry devices are literally spoiling on the shelves instead of getting into the hands of consumers.

8.25%: Percent decline in Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) share price in the first quarter. New CEO Meg Whitman has yet to convince investors that she can stop the firm's slide. The stock is off more than 40% during the last 12 months.

4: Month low that the HSBC China flash purchasing managers' index hit in March. The declines in everything from new orders to employment stoked fears that China's explosive growth was poised to slow.

0.07%: Yield on three-month U.S. Treasury bill. And extending duration doesn't help add much more yield. The 30-year bond is yielding just 3.27%.

1.88%: Dividend yield on the S&P 500, well below the mean of 4.33%. There just aren't any good places to find relatively safe yield today.

1.08: Median price/fair value ratio for the real estate sector. Real estate is now the most overvalued sector as investors pile in searching for income.

218: Days until the 2012 US presidential election. That means 218 days of endless news coverage and 218 days of unusual uncertainty about future tax rates and fiscal policy.

432 Million: Number of monthly active Facebook users--out of 800 million total--who use a mobile device to visit the social-network website.

0: Number of ad dollars brought in to Facebook via its mobile apps.

Bearish markets editor Bearemy Glaser is the worry-prone alter-ego of markets editor Jeremy Glaser. Each week, Bearemy shares what's topping his list of concerns. This article has been rewritten for a UK audience by Holly Cook, editor of Morningstar.co.uk.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Bearemy Glaser

Bearemy Glaser  is the worry-prone alter-ego of Morningstar markets editor Jeremy Glaser. Each week, Bearemy shares what's topping his list of concerns.

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