Petroleum Grows but Iron Ore to Shrink at BHP

BHP Billiton's recent second-quarter update revealed growth in petroleum, but iron ore is to temporarily shrink in the second half

Mark Taylor 19 January, 2012 | 2:44PM
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BHP Billiton (BLT) reported strong fiscal 2012 second-quarter volume growth in most major commodity categories except coking coal, which was down on this time last year and on the first quarter of 2012. Iron ore was unchanged from the first quarter, though considerably higher than a year ago. Despite the predominant increase in quarter-on-quarter volume across commodity sectors, the magnitude generally was less than anticipated. Strong outperformance from the petroleum division was the exception rather than the rule. It is fortunate for near-term earnings that petroleum has grown to be the second-largest individual profit driver for BHP, on par with copper's 16% contribution, though still behind iron ore, the largest at 40%--at least while prices remain elevated.

Petroleum cab offset the quarter's underachievers but not reduced second-half iron ore production. Iron ore by a whisker delivered another quarterly production record, reflecting dual tracking of Western Australian rail infrastructure, additional ship loading capacity at Port Headland, and consistently strong performance. But we were slightly too aggressive in our second-half iron ore expectations. We have reduced our second-half forecast for BHP, citing maintenance, expansion tie-ins, and the wet season as likely to crimp iron ore to levels beneath those of the first half of 2012. That dents the largest profit center and means our group fiscal 2012 earnings forecast declines marginally. Our fiscal 2013 earnings forecast is unchanged, lower than fiscal 2012 on an anticipated pullback in iron ore and coking coal prices.

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Mark Taylor  is an equity analyst at Morningstar.

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