What to Expect from the Week Ahead

U.S. employment data, global PMIs and the aftermath of Hurricane Irene will be some of the events greeting investors returning from their bank holiday weekends

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 26 August, 2011 | 7:07PM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

As the summer draws to a close and investors return from their holidays and long weekend escapes, there will be plenty of economic news to keep them busy throughout the following week.

At the onset of the trading week, which starts on Tuesday, the U.K. market will still have to reevaluate its initial reaction to Ben Bernanke’s long awaited Jackson Hole address, or at least find direction now that this market focal point has passed. On the London Stock Exchange, the knee-jerk response to the Fed Chairman’s speech was positive, with investors taking their cue from Bernanke’s commitment to “employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger recovery.”

However, Bernanke did highlight that the pace of the U.S. recovery will not necessitate immediate economic growth injections. “QE3 is not on the cards,” commented Morningstar’s director of economic analysis Bob Johnson shortly before today’s Fed meeting. In his opinion, the Fed is more likely to lend support to the economy through means such as extending the maturity of bonds in its portfolio. According to Bernanke’s address, the Fed will engage in “fuller discussion” of its growth-accommodating policies in an extended mid-September meeting.

This development leaves investors ever-so-focused on the upcoming economic indicators. Next week will bring along key Purchasing Manager Indices for August, including the final reading of manufacturing PMIs from China, the U.K. and the eurozone on Thursday.

While the flash manufacturing PMI for China indicated mild improvement from the 28-month lows it reached in July, the predictive power of the PMIs can be overstated, warned Bob Johnson recently. He said that “while the PMI is useful at market bottoms, it is less so during a normal recovery; when the economy is particularly volatile, it does a better job of predicting industrial production than the [output of the] overall economy, but in the short run even that relationship isn't perfect.” That said, one cannot underestimate the recent market propensity to overreact on economic data.

Across the Atlantic, investors will be focused on U.S. employment data for August released on Wednesday and Friday, as well as the ISM manufacturing survey due on Thursday. Putting seasonal adjustment factors aside, the state of the housing market could be the one key driver of a pick-up in U.S. employment, as Morningstar’s experts discussed in this video. To this end, investors should be interested in the U.S. National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index for July, released on Monday.

In terms of corporate news, next week will be relatively quiet. There is only one FTSE 100 company issuing interim results, Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) on Thursday.

Moving away from economic and corporate calendars, developments in Libya are likely to continue influencing global energy markets, while U.S. traders are preparing for the event of Hurricane Irene disrupting business on the East Coast.

Monday
Bank Holiday in the U.K.
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: German CPI for August
U.S.: Personal Income and Outlays for July, Pending Home Sales for July

Tuesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Afren (AFR) interims, Bovis Homes Group (BVS) interims, Computacenter (CCC) interims, International Public Partnerships (INPP) interims, Lamprell (LAM) interims, Perform Group (PER) interims
U.K. Economic Announcements
M4 Money Supply
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Household Spending for July, Unemployment Rate for July, Retail Sales for July
Eurozone: Economic Sentiment for August, German and Eurozone Retail PMI for August
U.S.: S&P Case-Schiller HPI for June, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August, the latest FOMC Minutes

Wednesday
U.K. Corporate Announcements
Bunzl (BNZL) interims, JKX Oil & Gas (JKX) interims
International Economic Announcements
Japan: Industrial Production for July
Eurozone: HICP flash estimate for august, Unemployment Rate for July
U.S.: ADP Employment Report for August, Challenger Job-Cut Report for August, Chicago PMI for August, Factory Orders for July, Farm Prices for August

Thursday
U.K. Economic Announcements
Hays (HAS) preliminaries, Hargreaves Lansdown preliminaries, The Go-Ahead Group (GOG) preliminaries, The Restaurant Group (RTN) interims
U.K. Economic Announcements
CIPS/PMI Manufacturing for August
International Economic Announcements
China: HSBC PMI Manufacturing for August
Eurozone: 2Q GDP, Germany and Eurozone PMI Manufacturing for August
U.S.: Weekly jobless claims, 2Q Productivity and Costs, ISM Manufacturing Index for August, Chain Store Sales for August, Motor Vehicle Sales for August

Friday
U.K. Economic Announcements
CIPS/PMI Construction for August
International Economic Announcements
Eurozone: German Retail Sales for July, Eurozone’s PPI for July
U.S.: Employment Situation for August

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Morningstar.co.uk Editors  analyse and report on shares, funds, market developments and good investing practice for individual investors and their advisers in the UK.

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures