Can De La Rue Beat Our Profit Projections?

While De La Rue's fiscal results were grim, the company’s management believes it can achieve record operating profits in the next three years

Brett Horn 25 May, 2011 | 10:58AM
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As expected, De La Rue's (DLAR) fiscal 2011 results were grim. Revenue fell 17% year over year because of the combination of the company's production issues and a soft market. The company's currency segment, which declined 30% year over year, was the main culprit. Because of the falloff in revenue, operating margins shrank dramatically from 18.1% to 8.7%. While full-year results came in a little bit worse than our expectations, the shortfall is not enough to move the needle on our fair value estimate. Further, we take encouragement from plans the company announced to restore profitability. Management believes it can achieve cost reductions of £30 million and record operating profits of more than £100 million (approximately the level achieved in fiscal 2010, before the production issues) in three years. If successful, this would put the company ahead of our projections.

While the past year has been a trying period for the company and has led to changes in management, we believe De La Rue has acted responsibly in dealing with its issues and protecting its reputation, which, given the types of products the company deals in, is crucial to its competitive position. We also appreciate the fact that the company has maintained its dividend and continues to make returning cash flow to shareholders a priority.

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Brett Horn  Brett Horn is an associate director in the equity research department.

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