BSkyB's Results Could Fuel Upgrades, Bid Increase

The pay-TV operator achieved its best revenue growth in years in 2010 and is already well ahead of this at the fiscal-2011 halfway point

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 28 January, 2011 | 9:50AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) reported another strong quarter of revenue growth. Revenue growth for both the second fiscal quarter, and the first half 2011, were up by 15% respectively, easily beating our full-year estimate of 7.2%. The firm generated 10.2% revenue growth in fiscal 2010, its best result in many years, and is now well ahead of that rate halfway through fiscal 2011. In light of this outperformance, we will be reviewing our model and will likely increase our fair value estimate.

BSkyB continued solid growth adding 140,000 new television subscribers as well as 343,000 in HD services. However, the big improvement came in broadband, telephony, and line rental where it added 660,000 customers, the best in several years. About 24% of the firm's customers now take television, broadband, and telephony; this is driving solid increases in ARPU, which improved by 10% to £541 annually. However, offsetting some of the optimism generated from these results, 2.3% of the growth came from acquisitions. In addition, management provided caution regarding the 2011 calendar year as government austerity measures are just hitting the consumer.

While BSkyB did a good job of cutting administrative costs, the revenue growth drove higher marketing and acquisition costs. The firm also signed several new sports licensing deals, which drove up programming costs. This caused adjusted EBITDA margins (21.2%) to fall slightly short of our full year estimate of 21.9%, though this was still an improvement over the year-ago period (20.5%). We expect BSkyB's EBITDA margin will remain below our projection as programming costs will likely remain high as it launches new channels, particularly Sky Atlantic, while second-half revenue growth could decline sequentially.

Overall, we were quite impressed with the company's report and think it increases pressure on News Corp. (NWS) to increase its bid if it wants to acquire the rest of BSkyB. That said, News Corp. first needs to win regulatory approval. In December, the European Union gave its approval, but this week the UK said the deal would need to be reviewed further for media plurality issues. We expect the deal will go through the full review process, which will likely last at least six months, but it will ultimately be approved.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures