What to Expect from the Week Ahead

US mid-term elections, further QE from the Federal Reserve, and interest rate announcements in Europe and Asia will dominate markets this week

Holly Cook 31 October, 2010 | 11:47AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

It’s a big week for UK companies announcing earnings this week, with BP among those in the spotlight, but it’s an even bigger week across the Atlantic, where mid-term US elections, the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Quantitative Easing and non-farm payrolls are set to dominate the headlines.

Tuesday’s US elections are predicted to produce a fairly damning report on the Democrats popularity. High unemployment, a shaky economic recovery, and the Obama Administration’s heavily-criticised financial and healthcare policy are expected to prompt a substantial swing in favour of the Republicans over the Democrats, inflated by the former’s higher levels of voter engagement.

Also starting on Tuesday is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which after two days is expected to unveil on Wednesday a second round of monetary stimulus. Last week’s US GDP data estimated the economy grew 2.0% during the third quarter, driven by increased spending on consumer services, but imports continue to be a headwind to GDP. This week’s QE announcement is already having an impact on the markets, which have rallied more than once as QE looked increasingly likely, and fallen back when data implied the asset purchase programme might not be as large as some investors hope for. However, although the Fed hopes more QE will raise asset values and spur the wealth effect, it runs the risk of blowing another bubble, says Morningstar's Director of Economic Analysis, Bob Johnson.

Other items on the economic agenda this week include Thursday’s interest rate decision from the Bank of England. No change is expected but the Monetary Policy Committee’s internal debate over whether further QE is required and when to start upping the base rate will be the key for markets. Both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will make their own interest rate announcements on Thursday.

On the corporate front, it’s a busy week for UK company earnings and among them BP will be closely watched to see how it compares to Royal Dutch Shell’s bumper results last week. Investors will also be looking for signs of when the oil giant will return to paying out dividends, not least because of BP’s ubiquity in pension funds.

Monday
UK Economic Announcements
CIPS/PMI Manufacturing Index for October

International Economic Announcements
EU: PMI Manufacturing Index for October
US: Personal Income and Outlays for September, ISM Mfg Index for October, Construction Spending for September

Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
BG Group 3Q, BP 3Q, Imperial Tobacco prelims, Reckitt Benckiser Group 3Q

International Economic Announcements
US: FOMC Meeting Begins, Motor Vehicle Sales for October

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
First Group interims

Ex-Dividends
FTSE 100: Intertek, Royal Dutch Shell
FTSE 250: Ashmore Group, BlueBay Asset Management, Go-Ahead Group, Laird, Persimmon, Provident Financial, SThree

International Economic Announcements
US: FOMC Meeting Announcement, Challenger Job-Cut Report for October, ADP Employment Report for October, Factory Orders for September, ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October, Chain Store Sales for October, weekly EIA petroleum status report

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
BTG interims, Cable & Wireless Communications interims, Invensys interims, Man Group interims, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels 3Q, Shanks Group 3Q, Synergy Health interims, Tate & Lyle interims, Unilever 3Q

UK Economic Announcements
Bank of England Announcement

International Economic Announcements
Japan: Bank of Japan Announcement
EU: ECB Announcement, PPI for September
US: Monster Employment Index for November, 3Q Productivity and Costs, weekly EIA natural gas report

Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
Royal Bank of Scotland 3Q, Smith & Nephew 3Q, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust interims

UK Economic Announcements
Producer Price Index for October

International Economic Announcements
EU: Retail Sales for September
Germany: Manufacturer’s Orders for September
US: Employment Situation for October, Consumer Credit for September

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures