Glaxo's 2Q Tops Expectations

Robust H1N1 vaccine sales helped GlaxoSmithKline's quarterly results but costs could do with some more cutting

Damien Conover, CFA 21 July, 2010 | 2:58PM
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GlaxoSmithKline reported second-quarter results that slightly exceeded our expectations, largely thanks on robust H1N1 vaccine sales. As we believe the H1N1 vaccine boost is primarily a one-time event, we don't expect to change our fair value estimate.

Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, total sales were flat year over year as strong growth from new products and vaccine sales offset generic competition. Excluding previously announced legal charges, earnings per share fell 5% from the prior-year period as expenses have increased to support new products and growth in emerging markets.

Several factors weighed on top-line growth. Generic competition to antiviral drug Valtrex cut the company's overall growth rate by 3% year over year. Also, the company's top drug Advair for respiratory disease posted only flat growth versus the prior-year period. Despite management's guidance regarding a patent covering the delivery device for Advair lasting until 2017, we continue to expect generic competition to Advair by the end of the year. However, since inhaled drugs like Advair offer some complexity to the generic manufacturers, generics could remain at bay until 2011.

Vaccines and new products posted strong gains in the quarter. H1N1 vaccines sales boosted the company's total growth rate 4% from the prior-year period, but as we don't expect another pandemic to drive these sales again next year, we view the H1N1 sales as nonrecurring. Also, several of Glaxo's new products are posting strong gains, which unlike H1N1 should continue to support the company's growth for several years. Further, the company announced three new Phase III drugs in cancer, HIV, and Duchenne muscular dystrophy--all targets that tend to face better chances of approval and strong pricing power, which should bode well for the firm.

Glaxo appears to be struggling to follow others in the industry in reducing costs. As a percentage of total sales, operating costs were largely flat year over year. While we agree with Glaxo's increased marketing support behind investments in emerging markets, we believe the company should be cutting costs faster in the developed markets, similar to the majority of its peers.

Damien Conover, CFA, is a senior equity analyst with Morningstar.

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About Author

Damien Conover, CFA  is an equity analyst and associate director at Morningstar.

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