Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla
- Fair Value Estimate: $250
- Morningstar Rating: ★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Bloomberg reported Tesla TSLA plans to launch the testing of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, on June 12. The report said Tesla already conducted its first driverless test on public roads in Austin with an engineer in the passenger seat. Tesla shares were up 2% in afterhours trading.
Why it matters: Tesla’s robotaxi moving from product concept to testing is a key step toward the launch of a robotaxi service. Management said it was targeting the month of June for the testing launch. We interpret the set date as a sign that management is confident the software is ready for testing.
- The report said Tesla plans to test 10 robotaxis. Based on our estimate for robotaxis making 15 rides per day, this could allow Tesla to run at least 4,500 tests per month, if not more. This should allow Tesla to more quickly identify and fix any issues with the robotaxi service versus a smaller fleet.
The bottom line: We maintain our $250 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Tesla. While we assume Tesla’s robotaxi service begins testing in June, we forecast the multicity robotaxi service launch will not occur until 2028, as we do not think the software is ready for widespread adoption.
- At current prices, we view Tesla shares as overvalued with the stock trading at roughly 45% above our fair value estimate and in 2-star territory. We see a lot of optimism priced into the stock that implicitly assumes Tesla’s robotaxi launches next year, in line with management’s timeline.
Long view: In the coming years, we forecast Tesla will successfully roll out its robotaxi service and enter new cities. We see Tesla and Alphabet’s Waymo gaining market share in the ride-hailing market as they will be able to offer cheaper rides versus traditional ride-hailing services.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.