Raising Fair Value Estimate for NatWest Group

Upgrade based on significantly better net interest margin performance.

Niklas Kammer 27 May, 2025 | 10:34AM
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Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

Key Morningstar Metrics for NatWest Group

  • Fair Value Estimate: GBX 480
  • Morningstar Rating: ★★★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium

We revised our assumptions for NatWest NWG and raise our fair value estimate to 480p. Primarily, our fair value increase rests on a significantly better net interest margin performance and continuously improving net interest income outlook. We had previously assumed that weakening deposit margins brought about by multiple base-rate cuts would more than negate the positive structural hedge effect. However, the opposite has been the case.

Base-rate cuts have been less frequent than anticipated, and swap rates have held relatively stable. As a result, NatWest’s loan portfolio has been rolling on to higher rates. Based on current swap rates, this effect should continue into 2027. As a result, we now assume net interest margins to expand to 240 basis points in 2027 from 213 basis points in 2024. Our no moat rating is unchanged.


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Niklas Kammer  is an equity analyst sfor Morningstar

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