
Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Key Morningstar Metrics for NatWest Group
- Fair Value Estimate: GBX 480
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
We revised our assumptions for NatWest NWG and raise our fair value estimate to 480p. Primarily, our fair value increase rests on a significantly better net interest margin performance and continuously improving net interest income outlook. We had previously assumed that weakening deposit margins brought about by multiple base-rate cuts would more than negate the positive structural hedge effect. However, the opposite has been the case.
Base-rate cuts have been less frequent than anticipated, and swap rates have held relatively stable. As a result, NatWest’s loan portfolio has been rolling on to higher rates. Based on current swap rates, this effect should continue into 2027. As a result, we now assume net interest margins to expand to 240 basis points in 2027 from 213 basis points in 2024. Our no moat rating is unchanged.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.
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