Coinbase Shares Fall on Customer Data Breach but Damage Manageable

The relatively small number of accounts affected will keep financial damage limited, but there will also be reputational damage.

Michael Miller, CFA 16 May, 2025 | 9:02AM
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The Coinbase logo is seen as sticker on a computer laptop.

Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

Morningstar’s Metrics for Coinbase Global


Coinbase Global COIN announced that cyber criminals gained access to customer accounts and personal data, which they used to steal client funds and attempted to extort the firm itself.

Why it matters: Coinbase shares were trading lower May 15 after the firm announced that it had refused a $20 million ransom demand from cyber criminals who obtained customer account data by bribing insiders at the firm.

• The data breach affected a small number of Coinbase’s total client base, less than 1%, but the data was used to steal client funds. The firm has announced that it will refund any customer’s funds lost due to the breach.

• The firm estimates the total cost of the breach at $180 million-$400 million, though this could increase over time.

The bottom line: Despite the breach, we will maintain our $170 per share fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Coinbase. That said, we do see the shares as overvalued following their strong rally after the firm’s inclusion in the S&P 500.

• We think the company took the correct approach by being forthcoming with the issue, how much customer data was stolen, and its response to the ransom demands.

• The relatively small number of accounts affected will keep financial damage limited, but there will also be reputational damage. That said, this should fade over time, as Coinbase has historically had a strong security track record relative to its peers.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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Michael Miller, CFA  is an equity analyst.

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