Key Morningstar Metrics for Burberry
- Fair Value Estimate: GBX 1,330
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
Burberry Refocusing on Marketing Activities
Burberry BRBY reported expected weak profitability and a 15% drop in constant-currency revenue for full-year 2024/25. However, the second half showed improving revenue trends. Shares were up about 9% on the day of the announcement.
Why it matters: Burberry is in the early stages of a turnaround initiated by recently appointed CEO Joshua Schulman. The turnaround actions, so far, have been refocusing marketing activities on core differentiated products such as outerwear and scarves, clearing excess inventory, and cost reductions. Fourth-quarter comparable store sales were down 6%, which is slightly lower sequentially (negative 4% in the third quarter), but significantly better than the 20% decline in the first half. Sequential deterioration was largely driven by the Americas region, in line with our expectations and previously reported by peers.
Outerwear and scarves (focus categories) outperformed other categories in the fourth quarter and year, which we view as positive.
The bottom line: We are maintaining our fair value estimate for Burberry and see shares as materially undervalued at current levels, trading in 5-star territory.
We see the probability of turnaround strategy success as relatively high and project Burberry to return to mid-single-digit revenue growth and high-teens margin.
While the turnaround may be delayed by tough market conditions, we believe Burberry is pursuing the right strategy of focusing on the core offering, where the brand is differentiated and strong with more consistent price positioning.
Successful turnarounds (Pandora in 2018 is an example) often start with refocusing on the core strength of the brand. The first sign of success of this strategy is improving sales trends.
The challenge with this strategy is that a meaningful share of revenue comprised nonouterwear products, where the brand is less strong, and that outerwear category has become more competitive over the past 10 years with players like Moncler gaining share.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.