Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Walt Disney
- Fair Value Estimate: $115.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
What We Thought of Walt Disney’s Earnings
Walt Disney’s DIS fiscal second quarter was spectacular in virtually every aspect. Most importantly, experiences grew revenue and operating income 6% year over year, with even stronger results domestically, and management expects a stronger second half. Streaming continues to grow and become more profitable.
Why it matters: We’ve been concerned that an economic slowdown and strained relations between the United States and other countries would cause material downside pressure on Disney. We remain cautious about this, but management has seen little impact so far, and its outlook remains optimistic.
• Within domestic parks, management has seen very little headwind from reduced foreign tourism, and second-half bookings are up midsingle digits. For the full year, Disney now expects experiences operating income at the top end of its previous guidance for 6%-8% growth.
• In media, management said the advertising market is healthy right now, with live sports doing especially well. Going into advertising upfronts this month for the upcoming television season, Disney is seeing robust demand for advertising in linear and streaming.
The bottom line: Even after May 7’s 10% rise, we believe Disney is undervalued. However, despite the upbeat outlook, we still believe Disney’s near-term results—and its stock—will be very sensitive to economic conditions. We don’t intend to make a material change to our $115 fair value estimate.
Big picture: Beyond the near-term environment, the second-quarter report boosted our comfort in our wide moat rating, even as Disney’s traditional television business continues to decline. The firm’s franchises and characters support our moat, and we continue to see evidence of their contributions.
• The company announced a deal to bring a Disney park to Abu Dhabi with a partner, Miral. While financial details were sparse, Disney will contribute no capital but will get to oversee the park’s development, and it will receive service fees and royalties to allow use of its brands.
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