ARM Earnings: Tariffs Shut Down 2026 Guidance, Revenue Growth Still Strong

We still see the shares as materially overvalued despite latest weakness.

Javier Correonero 8 May, 2025 | 12:39PM
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In this photo illustration, the 'Arm' logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen in front of a computer screen.

Key Morningstar Metrics for ARM


What We Thought of ARM’s Earnings

Arm ARM reported $0.55 adjusted EPS this quarter, in line with guidance and above FactSet consensus. Next-quarter guidance was weaker than expected though at $1.0 billion-$1.1 billion in revenue and $0.30-$0.38 in adjusted EPS compared with expectations of $1.09 billion and $0.42 per share respectively.

Why it matters: The weaker-than-expected outlook and management shutting down its 2026 guidance due to tariff uncertainty sent shares down 10% in aftermarket trading.

Despite the weaker outlook, management gave some directional guidance and expects a softer first half of the year followed by 10%-15% sequential revenue growth in the second half. This should result in around 20% revenue growth in fiscal 2026.

We expect 18% revenue growth and $1.86 in adjusted EPS for 2026, with strong royalty revenue growth underpinned by higher royalty rates and market share gains. Smartphone, data center, and automotive revenue continued growing at healthy double digits.

The bottom line: We maintain our $73 fair value estimate. Although Arm Holdings is slowly growing into its valuation, we still see the shares as materially overvalued. Our fair value estimate represents an adjusted forward P/E ratio of 39 times.

Key stats: Revenue for v9, which also includes Neoverse Compute Subsystems and carries higher royalty rates, jumped to more than 30% of royalty revenue after three quarters stuck at around 25%. Arm added 13 total access licenses this year to a total of 44. Six additions come from smartphone clients, six from data center clients, and one from an automotive client.

Arm’s exposure to tariffs is indirect. Since 10%-20% of its royalty revenue comes from the US, any decline in shipments by its clients due to tariff uncertainty could lead to lower royalty revenue.


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Javier Correonero  is an equity analyst for Morningstar

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