Key Morningstar Metrics for Alphabet
- Fair Value Estimate: $237
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
Alphabet Stock Update
On May 7, Apple’s AAPL senior vice president of services, Eddy Cue, testified in the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Alphabet GOOGL that Apple was considering a Safari revamp which would include an end to its long-term Google Search partnership. Also, he noted April Safari search queries were down.
Why it matters: With around 20% market share of the global mobile browser market, Safari’s default placement of Google Search has been at the center of the DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Google. Any change in this partnership would be material to both Alphabet and Apple.
• Alphabet’s revenue sharing agreement with Apple costs the firm around $20 billion annually. Part of this payment is for the default placement of Google Search as Safari’s search engine, while the remaining portion is a cut of ad revenue generated by Safari searches.
• We believe Apple is unlikely to end its RSA with Alphabet without having a plan to claw back the $20 billion. In the long term, we could see an equilibrium where Google is among a list of options users can choose from, with each search provider having a nonexclusive RSA with Apple.
The bottom line: We maintain our $237 fair value estimate for wide-moat Alphabet. We think investors’ reaction to Eddy Cue’s comments is overblown. While we expect queries to migrate over to artificial intelligence search bots, we continue to model Google holding on to the vast majority of monetizable queries.
• We don’t view Google as a passive observer in this dynamic search space. The firm’s investments in AI Overviews, AI Mode, and Circle to Search are showing promise. While we expect some search query migration, we believe investors are pricing in material value destruction in the search business.
• We do, however, envision Google Search growing at a lower compound annual growth rate (6%) than the broader digital advertising market (10%) over the next five years due to a mixture of AI-infused search engines and fewer ads being placed on text-based search.
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