Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Years of Underinvestment in Spanish Grid
On April 28 around midday, a sudden 60% drop of the power supply combined with a disruption in the connection with France caused a shutdown of the electricity grid in Spain and Portugal. The reason is still unknown. Power supply was fully restored on April 29.
Why it matters: The blackout comes after years of underinvestment in the Spanish grid while renewables capacity soared. Underinvestment has been more pronounced in Spain than in other Western European countries due to a poor regulation characterized by the absence of indexation to inflation and low allowed returns.
• Features of the next 2026-31 regulatory period for electricity networks are being discussed in Spain. The blackout strengthens the case for a material improvement to incentivize higher investments.
• The right-wing opposition leader attacked the Spanish government’s plan to phase out nuclear power as of 2027.
The bottom line: We already factor in a material increase in investments in the electricity grid for Redeia RED, Endesa ELE, and Iberdrola IBE as well as an increase in the regulated returns from 5.6% to 7% as of 2026. We confirm our fair value estimates of EUR 18.5, EUR 23.5, and EUR 14.4, respectively.
• None of these names is in buying territory. Our two preferred names to play the acceleration of the investments in the electricity grid are SSE SSE and narrow-moat E.On EOAN for which we maintain our respective fair value estimates of GBX 2,250 and EUR 17.
• An extension of the useful lives of nuclear plants in Spain would require significant investments that would mitigate the positive impact of incremental earnings on valuation. The most exposed company is Endesa.
Big picture: Features of next regulatory regimes for the electricity grid in Germany and the UK will be determined by year-end. The Spanish blackout strengthens the case for higher investments and returns that would favor SSE and E.On.
Between the lines: We expect Redeia to be able to fully recover the costs linked to the blackout.
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