Unilever: Sales Growth Beats Consensus, Volume Growth Lags

At current levels, shares are fairly valued.

Diana Radu 24 April, 2025 | 4:39PM
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A Unilever logo is displayed outside the head office of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. in Tangerang, Indonesia.

Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Unilever


Unilever Confirms Full-Year Guidance

Unilever ULVR reported first-quarter 2025 underlying sales growth of 3%, slightly ahead of company-compiled consensus’ 2.8%, driven by pricing. The company confirmed full-year 2025 guidance. Shares were broadly flat at the market open on April 24.

Why it matters: Like other European consumer staples peers that reported first-quarter sales, volume growth was weaker than expected, rising just 1.3% versus company-compiled consensus’ 1.5% and below Unilever’s midterm ambition of more than 2%.

  • Developed markets posted solid organic sales growth of 4.5% compared with 2% in emerging markets. This was supported by mid-single-digit organic growth across beauty and well-being, personal care, and ice cream, with improving competitiveness in Europe and North America.
  • Management expects organic sales growth to accelerate as the year progresses, underpinned by a robust innovation plan and stepped-up brand and marketing investments, expected to reach 15%-16% of sales. China and Indonesia, which have been underperforming recently, are expected to contribute more meaningfully to growth in the second half with improved execution.

The bottom line: We don’t expect to materially change our fair value estimate for wide-moat Unilever. At current levels, shares are fairly valued.

  • The stock is up 2% year to date with some volatility driven by a fourth-quarter 2024 consensus miss, the abrupt departure of CEO Hein Schumacher, and tariff-related uncertainty. Unilever’s portfolio diversification across categories and geographies positions it well to adapt to a shifting macroeconomic backdrop, with limited direct tariff exposure due to its localized manufacturing footprint.
  • Still, Unilever is not immune to indirect effects from tariffs, particularly on currencies, commodities, and consumer sentiment. This could lead to some changes to its short-term plans as the largest growth opportunities may shift in the face of pronounced consumer weakness.


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Diana Radu  is ESG analyst for Morningstar.com

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