Nestlé: Sales Beat Consensus Forecasts, but Volume Recovery Elusive

At current levels, we see a modest upside for the shares.

Diana Radu 24 April, 2025 | 4:20PM
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The logo of Nestle are seen on chocolates in Ankara, Turkey on July 26, 2018.

Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Nestlé


Nestlé Confirms Full-Year Guidance

Nestlé reported first-quarter 2025 organic sales growth of 2.8%, ahead of 2.5% company-compiled consensus, driven by pricing. The company confirmed full-year 2025 guidance. The share price was slightly down in early trading on April 24.

Why it matters: Despite the consensus beat, real internal growth (volume and mix) was slightly disappointing at 0.7%, falling below the 0.8% consensus, and a deceleration compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. Reaccelerating volume growth remains a key priority to enhance the quality of results.

  • Pricing strength came primarily from efforts to offset input cost inflation in coffee and confectionery. Coffee saw mid-single-digit pricing, while confectionery posted double-digit increases, with limited customer disruption. Real internal growth was slightly negative in confectionery, but it’s still too early to see the full impact of the increases on price elasticities.
  • Growth categories such as health science, pet care, and Nespresso outperformed the group average in real internal growth, posting performance in the 2.5%–4.8% range.

The bottom line: We confirm our CHF 92 fair value estimate for wide-moat Nestlé. At current levels, we see a modest upside of roughly 5%. The first-quarter delivery is broadly aligned with our full-year forecast, with our 3.3% organic sales growth forecast primarily driven by pricing of 2.4%.

  • The share price has rebounded around 17% year to date, helped by a fourth-quarter 2024 consensus beat and limited direct tariff exposure, given Nestlé’s focus on local-for-local manufacturing.
  • Nonetheless, Nestlé is not immune to second-order tariff effects, including pressure on currencies, commodities, and consumer sentiment. These may affect growth in more discretionary categories such as vitamins, minerals, and supplements.


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Diana Radu  is ESG analyst for Morningstar.com

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