Key Morningstar Metrics for Just Eat Takeaway.com
- Fair Value Estimate: EUR 24
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Just Eat Takeover is On Track
Narrow-moat Just Eat Takeaway TKWY reported its first-quarter 2025 trading update with flat year-over-year gross transaction value and total orders down 6%. The firm is progressing on its deal to be acquired by Dutch technology investment group Prosus, which is expected to close by year-end, subject to regulatory approvals. The all-cash deal is worth EUR 4.1 billion, with Prosus set to acquire 100% of the shares for EUR 20.30 per share. Our probability-weighted fair value estimate is EUR 24 per share, where we assign a 75% probability of the deal going through, while the remaining 25% probability stems from our unchanged EUR 39 fair value estimate for the stand-alone company.
Excluding the rest of the world segment, first-quarter gross transaction value was up 2% year over year in constant currency. Europe GTV was up 1%, and the UK and Ireland segment increased 3%. While orders were down across segments, management is still confident it can achieve its 2025 target of year-over-year constant-currency GTV (excluding the rest of the world segment) growth of 4%-8%. The firm also reiterated its adjusted EBITDA guidance of EUR 360 million-EUR 380 million and free cash flow target of EUR 100 million.
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