Tesla TSLA is set to release its first-quarter earnings report on April 22. Here’s Morningstar’s take on what to look for in Tesla’s earnings and stock.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla
- Fair Value Estimate: $250.00
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Economic Moat: Narrow
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
Earnings Release Date
- Tuesday, April 22, after the close of trading
What to Watch for in Tesla’s Q1 Earnings
- We’ll be looking for an update on the impact of tariffs on Tesla’s businesses and the firm’s strategy to deal with the higher costs. This includes automotive cost per vehicle and the energy generation and storage business, since Tesla imports battery cells from China. We want to hear from management about whether the firm will raise prices to pass along tariff-related cost increases or maintain current prices and accept a lower profit margin.
- Our view is the new more affordable vehicle will drive deliveries growth in 2026. Tesla would need to launch the vehicle around the middle of the year to be able to ramp up production for 2026. We hope to hear an update from management on the vehicle’s timeline, even if we don’t hear many details about the vehicle itself during the earnings call.
- Tesla plans to begin testing its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. The firm also plans to begin testing in California later this year. We hope to hear the timeline for these tests, as well as for the launch of the robotaxi service. We also hope to hear an update on when the full self-driving supervised software will be launched in Europe and any updates on when FSD unsupervised will be ready for consumers.
- Tesla plans to build 5,000 Optimus humanoid robots this year to train in its factories. We hope to learn how many have been produced and what tasks they are performing. We also want an update on Tesla’s timeline for selling Optimus robots to the extent a timeline has been established
Tesla Stock Price
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Fair Value Estimate for Tesla
With its 3-star rating, we believe Tesla’s stock is fairly valued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $250 per share. We use a weighted average cost of capital of just under 9%. Our equity valuation adds back nonrecourse and nondilutive convertible debt.
In 2024, Tesla’s deliveries came in at 1.79 million, slightly below the 1.81 achieved in 2023. In 2025, we forecast deliveries will slightly fall again. We expect first half deliveries will be impacted by the new Model Y not being solid in all markets, especially in the beginning of the year. However, we forecast a better second half of the year as the affordable vehicle is launched by midyear. As the company is ramping up production of the new vehicles, we expect automotive gross margins excluding credits will remain in the mid-teens, below management’s long-term goal of 20%.
Read more about Tesla’s fair value estimate.
Economic Moat Rating
We award Tesla a narrow moat rating. Tesla’s moat stems from two of our five moat sources: intangible assets and cost advantage. The company’s strong brand cachet as a luxury automaker commands premium pricing, while its EV manufacturing expertise allows the company to make its vehicles cheaper than its competitors.
We see the potential for Tesla to outearn its cost of capital over at least the next 20 years, which is the measurement we use for a wide moat rating. However, the second 10-year period carries significant uncertainty for both Tesla and the broader automotive industry, given the rapid advancement of autonomous vehicle technologies that could transform how consumers use vehicles. As such, we view a narrow moat rating, which assumes a 10-year excess return duration, as more appropriate.
Read more about Tesla’s moat rating.
Financial Strength
Tesla is in excellent financial health. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments were nearly $36.6 billion and far exceeded total debt as of Dec. 31, 2024. Total debt was around $7.9 billion; however, total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing (nonrecourse debt) was less than $10 million.
Read more about Tesla’s financial strength.
Risk and Uncertainty
We assign Tesla a Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating, as we see a wide range of potential outcomes for the company. The automotive market is highly cyclical and subject to sharp demand declines based on economic conditions. As an EV market leader, Tesla is subject to growing competition from traditional automakers and new entrants. As new lower-priced EVs enter the market, Tesla may be forced to continue to cut prices, reducing the firm’s industry-leading profits. With more EV choices, consumers may view Tesla less favorably. The company is also investing heavily in R&D to develop autonomous driving software with no guarantee these investments will bear fruit. Tesla’s CEO effectively owns a little more than 20% of the company’s stock and uses it as collateral for personal loans, which raises the risk of a large sale to repay debt.
Read more about Tesla’s risk and uncertainty.
TSLA Bulls Say
- Tesla could disrupt the automotive and power generation industries with its technology for EVs, AVs, batteries, and solar generation systems.
- Tesla will see higher profit margins as it reduces unit production costs over the next several years.
- Tesla’s full self-driving software should generate growing profits in the coming years as the technology continues to improve, leading to a robotaxi service, increased adoption by Tesla drivers, and licensing from other auto manufacturers.
TSLA Bears Say
- Traditional automakers and new entrants are investing heavily in EV development, which will result in Tesla seeing a deceleration in sales growth and being forced to cut prices due to increased competition, eroding profit margins.
- Tesla’s large investment in autonomous driving software will be value-destructive, as the robotaxi product will face delays and competition from Waymo, who already offers a robotaxi service.
- CEO Elon Musk’s political activities will turn consumers away from buying a Tesla in key markets including the US and Europe, leading to lower sales and profits.
This article was compiled by Gautami Thombare.
The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.