European Utilities Caught in Market Rout Despite Limited Exposure to US Tariffs

After first rallying on tariff news, European utilities have dipped.

Tancrede Fulop 7 April, 2025 | 4:24PM
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In this photo illustration, the Orsted logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen.

After rallying on April 3 together with government bonds, European utilities have been caught in the market rout since April 4.

Why it matters: Tariffs could be a modest headwind for renewables developers in the US, but we would expect any higher costs to be passed through to customers via higher power purchase agreement prices over time. The most exposed company is Ørsted. We estimate that tariffs could lead to an impairment on its Sunrise Wind project of DKK 2 billion, or less than 2% of the company’s market capitalization. EDPR has the highest US renewable footprint, but most of the equipment of its 1 gigawatts under construction is already in the US. For 2026, 100% of its modules are tariff-free. RWE is also a big developer in the US. The firm expects a total tariff impact below 3% of its net cash investments in 2025.

The bottom line: We favor undervalued companies that have limited exposure to power prices and are sensitive to interest rates, like E.On. Enel, Iberdrola, and National Grid also meet these criteria but are not in buying territory yet. EDPR and Ørsted sold off excessively and were already materially undervalued before the market rout. We confirm our fair value estimates of EUR 13 and DKK 460, respectively. Veolia sold off due to its perceived cyclicality. Yet, it has proved in the past that it can materially increase cost savings to cope with economic headwinds like covid or the deflationary environment in 2016. We confirm our EUR 37.50 fair value estimate.

Big picture: Fears of a global economic slowdown are weighing on commodity prices. European gas and power forward prices are down 13% and 7%, respectively. At EUR 80/megawatt-hour, the 2026 forward German price remains well above our EUR 60/MWh midcycle assumption.

Long view: Tariffs combined with the risk of an early phaseout of federal tax credits could slow the development of clean power in the US. Still, European developers could reallocate their investments elsewhere or trim them.


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Tancrede Fulop  is an Equity Analyst for Morningstar

 

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