Stock of the Week: Rolls-Royce Shares Up 35% in 2025 on Defense Rally

Morningstar’s fair value estimate for Rolls-Royce has been revised dramatically higher.

Christopher Johnson 7 March, 2025 | 11:06AM
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Rolls-Royce’s RR. shares have been caught up in the dramatic defence stock rally in recent weeks and are up around 35% already this year.

And just this week Morningstar has substantially raised its fair value estimate to 960p from 380p.

According to Loredana Muharremi, equity analyst at Morningstar, under the new CEO’s leadership the company has repositioned itself as a financially strong, high-margin, and cash-rich aerospace and defense leader.

She also argues that the reinstatement of Roll-Royce’s dividend, the share buyback programme, and the CEO’s push to transform the business, highlights a commitment to long term value creation.

The company has also undertaken major debt restructuring reducing its leverage to having a net-cash positive balance sheet whilst regaining investment-grade status.

The company is expected to experience a boost from new government commitments to increase defense spending in Europe.

Muharremi projects defense revenue for Rolls-Royce will grow at an 11% compound annual growth rate in the midterm with operating margins rising from 14.2% to 15.9% by 2029.

Year to date Rolls-Royce shares are already up around 35% and over one year have more than doubled. The shares are trading at 840p.

Because of the stellar share price gains, the company’s dividend yield is less than 1%, but the full-year payout of 6p is worth £500 million to shareholders.

Rolls-Royce Holdings Stock: Price vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

Source: Morningstar Direct. Latest price as of 10:52 EST. Data as of March 04, 2025.


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Christopher Johnson  is data journalist at Morningstar

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